Economic fallacies II

Fallacy #3: The singularity is a great investment opportunity
A technological revolution like that brought about by the PC or the Internet is a great investment opportunity. Current possibilities for this kind of compound growth in technology-driven financial returns include alternative energy, genomics, personalized medicine, anti-aging therapies, 3d data manipulation tools and narrowly-applied artificial intelligence.

A technological singularity is not necessarily a great investment opportunity. A technological singularity implies change so radical and diffuse that prior models for understanding and exploiting or profiting from the world will no longer work. There is a substantial risk that financial markets as they are known today could disappear. Growth, alpha and superior financial returns may be irrelevant in a post-traditional financial markets era. Planning for the possibility of a technological singularity suggests a much broader definition of what the assets of the future may be and allocating to these areas, a substantial shift away from the traditional asset preservation and financial returns that outpace inflation in the long-run mindset of today.


Fallacy #4: Economic systems become irrelevant in a post-scarcity economy
This is the notion that economies and markets go away in a post-scarcity economy for material goods. At present, an increasing number of goods and services are becoming available for free or offered via modern business models such as the freemium. In the future, substantially all material needs may be easily met at low cost or for free in a molecular-nanotech society, but scarcity as an economic dynamic is likely to persist and economics systems in general are also likely to continue.

Scarcity would be perceived in whatever material resources were not yet plentifully available and in any finite resources such as time, ideas, attention, emotion, reputation, quality, etc. Economic system dynamics could change substantially, for example, property tax would not make sense in a world where nanotech could rapidly build or absorb structures. Unless economics and markets as the most effective means of resource distribution are superceded, they are likely to endure.


Fallacy #5: Social capital markets need not deliver competitive returns
The conventional notion is that it is acceptable for social capital market investments to deliver lower returns than traditional financial instruments. Social capital market investment products include SRI equity funds, corporate governance initiatives, social capital venturing (private equity), fair trade coffee and organic products. On average, consumers are willing to spend 5% more for attribute products (products with affinity attributes such as fair trade, local, organic, etc.) and investors have been willing to sacrifice 5% or more in financial return for socially responsible investments.

However, after some implementation time lag, social capital could have equal or higher returns. Sustainable socially responsible businesses should be more profitable not less. Both direct tangible economic benefits can accrue as well as the indirect benefits of marketing and market-knowledge that the business is more principled and sustainable. Corporate governance and other green or social initiatives should benefit the bottom line, not penalize it. The notion that return and social good are mutually exclusive is a fallacy.

The article with all nine fallacies is available here

Social media and Enterprise 2.0

There is a much deeper application of Web 2.0 technologies and concepts possible in the enterprise than is currently being contemplated and implemented. Some companies have an early effort to use some of the tools but have not noticed that the concepts themselves can be applied to generate significant benefit. Worse, misapplication is also occurring such as the creation of Social Media Officers oblivious to the bottom-up rather than top-down property of social media.

Future of social media
The long-term future of social media is lifelogging - the auto-capture and permissioned auto-posting or archiving of every person’s every thought and experience. Feedhavior’s digital footprints continue to drive individual actions. The corporation goes away. Artificial intelligence becomes the most efficient form of outsourcing. People and organizations spend more time in simulation worlds than physical worlds. Entrepreneurs and organizations provide goods and services by making offerings proactively to groups of potential customers aggregated through their web-based interest communities. Marketing must be relevant to avoid being perceived as advertising.


Applying Web 2.0 Technologies to the Enterprise
There is no part of the firm at present that cannot make use of Web 2.0 and social media technologies. There are two dimensions for application:

External and Internal
Externally, a firm can use Web 2.0 and social media technologies for branding, re-inventing and testing business models, product and service sales, customer relationship management (CRM), partner ecosystem management, R&D outsourcing and recruiting. Internally, firms can use Web 2.0 and social media technologies for communication, collaboration, work assignment, task and project management, resource allocation and performance feedback.

Tools, Concepts and Values
Some examples of the direct application of social media and Web 2.0 tools are using blogs to supplement or replace marketing, APIs to supplement or replace business development, and crowdsourcing ideagoras to supplement or replace R&D. Applying concepts is for example not just using Digg for the firm’s industry news feeds but Digg functionality to bid up and down work assignments or performance feedback. Using Web 2.0 in the enterprise is not using mash-ups but mashing up internal applications, putting a virtual world front-end on any data application to represent the information in a high-resolution way. Internal trainings and meetings are conducted as open space unconferences. Everyone can participate in everything.

The values of social media are also applied internally and externally: authenticity, openness, transparency, participation, creativity, perpetual beta, new linkages, asking the wisdom of crowds (web, twitter), acknowledgement that everyone can have good ideas and contribute and using freemium and open-source business models (free + fee-based).

Capital markets evolution

A confluence of factors is impacting capital markets: first, the repeated failure of traditional financial markets (“Fed puts lipstick on Bear Stearns’ pig”) to provide capital and accurately-represented non-fraudulent investment products and their subsequent bail-out by taxpayers, second, the great shift in cultural attitude towards sustainable and socially responsible capital use (“Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations” and “Beyond the Green Corporation”) and third, the inexorable expansion of technological capability and the entrepreneurial ideas that exploit it.

Business Model Spectrum
The expansion of technological capability is allowing business models to evolve and expand and is the topic of long-tail meme-founder Chris Anderson’s new book, Free. Digital business costs such as bandwidth and storage have become so inexpensive that it is essentially free to provide an increasing number of web-based services. Some of the new business models include:

1. Alternative monetization - competitive pressures suggest offering services for free and monetizing other aspects such as attention (traffic) and reputation (links).
2. Freemium - a combination of free plus premium services. It may be in the open source software model (free software, fee-based up-sell for implementation, customization and support services) or the flickr model where the small group of paying customers (1%) subsidizes the free offering for the others (99%).
3. Indirect model – a wider application of third-party supported offerings (formerly TV and radio, now search engines, website content and sponsor and gambling-supported free Ryanair flights).

Consumer Financial Services 2.0
Context, culture and appropriateness are important properties of social networks. FaceBook, MySpace, LinkedIn, Pownce, Jaiku and Twitter are not the place to talk about money but financial social networks are.

It is quite possible in the future that social networks will be the accompanying community feature to any website or topic area.

Finance 2.0 websites offer financial services and a venue to create and interact with the user community around them. For example, Wesabe, Expensr, Mint and Geezeo provide expense aggregation and management. NetworthIQ, Boulevard R, and Zecco provide investment and financial planning services. Several of these Financial Services 2.0 companies are being featured at conferences such as O'Reilly Media's Money:Tech, BarCampBanks and Finovate. As with many technologies, age-tiering is apparent as under 30s enjoy the benefits of aggregated financial services while those over 30 await a higher level of security. Yodlee and BITS are working to establish industry standards for financial information access via tokens and credentials, similar mechanisms will be needed for digital health information.