Revolutions in biology futures

Biology is continuing its progression from art to information science to engineering problem. As with many technology areas, advances in tools are driving a new era of science, and tools, science and paradigms are all evolving in biology.

DNA Sequencing
The technology for reading DNA, sequencing, is continuing to outpace Moore’s Law. Next-gen high-throughput sequencing leader Pacific Biosciences estimates their 15-minute $1000 genome solution will be on the market in 2013, more than surpassing the Archon X Prize requirements (100 people, 10 days, $10,000 per person).

DNA Synthesizing
The technology for writing DNA, synthesizing, is also extending its capability exponentially. The traditional methods involve laborious manual molecular biology tricks, oligonucleotide synthesis plus ligation, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and polymerase assembly. These approaches have been supplanted by printing the code directly from a computer or ordering it from any of the 70 worldwide DNA synthesis foundries like Tech Dragon doing a billion dollars of business annually.

Personalized genomics and synthetic biology
The two biggest current revolutions are in personalized genomics and synthetic biology. Therapies are only in the early stages of development but personalized genetic information has the possibility of upstreaming healthcare to tailored medication and preventative interventions. Synthetic biology is using engineering to design and construct biological parts, devices and systems. The field has been developing a foundational library of standard and reliable open-source building block components; to date hundreds have been contributed to the Registry of Standard Biological Parts.

Scientific method yields to combinatorics
In any of the vast areas where biology is now an information science, empiricism and simulation are replacing the traditional scientific method. Instead of hypothesis and trial and error, nearly limitless combinations can be tested and studied for objective understanding of biological phenomena.

A more detailed look at Biology Futures is available here.

Future of entrepreneurialism

The traditional definition of entrepreneurship is expanding to include more creative ways of approaching business, applying business disciplines to social problems and establishing a wider range of success metrics. Four key trends are coming together to facilitate this new era of entrepreneurship: a shift in social consciousness, the democratization of capital, innovative responses to traditional financial systems and the low cost of starting a startup in the globalized world.

Shift in social consciousness
There is a great attitude shift underway towards sustainability and social responsibility. Al Gore, Paul Hawken and others have helped to put global warming, carbon neutrality, poverty and equity firmly on the international agenda. Part of the new social consciousness is also about effectiveness and accountability. Cycling the bottom of the pyramid out of poverty requires getting target populations actively involved. Loans are better than aid.

Democratization of capital
The ability to have more granular attribute knowledge about all economic transactions has triggered the demand to direct capital and consumption based on these affinity attributes. People are willing to pay on average 5-10% more for their attribute choices, for fair-trade, organic and local items, for hybrid cars and for blended value or double/triple bottom line financial returns.

Innovations to the traditional financial system
The shortcomings of traditional financial systems, their hierarchical nature, the lack of universal access and cyclic failures like the current mortgage crisis are triggering innovative solutions such as…

• Microfinance and P2P finance (for example, Kiva is currently active in 40 countries and lending about $750,000 per week)
• Socially Responsible Investing and social capital markets including social venture capital as offered by GoodCap
• Timebanks, gift economies and other non-monetary currency solutions
• Alternative payment mechanisms like developing country cell phone networks as money transfer systems

Low cost of starting a startup in the globalized world
The increasingly low cost of starting a startup makes a whole new tier of businesses possible: the LAMP software bundle provides free technology infrastructure, APIs replace business development and blogs and community interaction replace marketing (social networks become an overlay, a property of every website) and virtual world interactions replace face-to-face meetings.

Editing human utility functions

There is a claim that potentially coming technologies, molecular nanotechnology and artificial general intelligence (AGI) for example, will not render human life much different. To the extent that humans control these technologies, it will be further cases of the same evolved human society using technological tools. But the claim goes on to include the ability to dramatically edit human biology as also not making a big change.

It is easier to agree with the first claim than the second. Regarding biology, even without editing utility functions, it is already being found that genes, hormones and other physical details determine a large part and much more of our existence than a conscious mind deigns to think. Genetic therapies, hormonal management and other tools may serve as de facto utility function editing. Better neuroscience, computer-based mindfiles, artificial intelligence aids for abstracting lifelogs and other advances could presumably allow for direct exposure and editing of human utility functions.

There are some examples of what occurs when humans have the opportunity to self modify through plastic surgery, steroids, tattoos and virtual-world avatars. With plastic surgery and steroids, the only objective appears to attain a closer social ideal of beauty or athletic prowess, but this could be a function of cost and legality. Tattoos show much more creativity and human expressiveness; many people think deeply about this self-modification and its personal meaning.

Virtual worlds, where the cost of identity modification is essentially free, show some interesting patterns. The predominant trend is that at their first experience with virtual avatars, maybe 80% of people seek to represent themselves as the cultural ideal (20 years old, the tallest, fittest possible). The rest, an increasing percentage over time, seek the long tails, experimenting and exploring and becoming highly individualized. Some examples are the avatar with a rotating satellite dish as a head, the miniaturized avatar for easier navigation and many humanoid personifications.

If the dynamics are similar in the case of human utility function editing: low cost, legal and ease of changeability, the expectation would be that a lot of experimentation and day-to-day change would occur. Utility functions and personalities might be available for design, sharing and download on the net, to be experienced directly or for entertainment. Sliders could allow for in-flight fine-tuning. Going out could mean not just selecting what to wear but who to be.

Which brings up an intriguing identity question, who are you when you can alter your genes, hormones, personality and drives at will?