Ubiquitous information technology fields

The broadest thematic point in futurist Ray Kurzweil’s opening keynote at Singularity University on November 6, 2009 was that once any area becomes an information technology, it starts conforming to the exponential curves of Moore’s Law progress that have defined the computing and communications industries since 1900 or earlier.

Health is well on its way to becoming an information science with genomic sequencing and synthesizing, bioinformatics and continuous automated biomarker capture. Energy is starting to be an information science with the smart grid, essentially an electron routing network allowing on-demand ingress and egress of diverse flows. Many other fields could behave in the networking and packet-routing metaphor, directing fungible quantized resources to where they are needed and requested like people in driverless cars, neurons in a brain, clean air and water molecules, disease management and health care delivery. Since demand varies, market principles could be used for unobtrusive resource allocation in automatic markets that meet and transact per digitally-inferred demand profiles and pre-specified permissions.

All science is in some phase of becoming or has already become an information science in the sense of using computational models, simulation and informatics.

With computation and communication becoming increasingly embedded in every manufactured object, it is obvious that many more if not all fields could become information technologies.

Intelligence, for example, is becoming an information science. With the exponential growth of computing, it is likely that at some future point, machine intelligence could surpass that of humans. One path forward is to reengineer life into technology that can keep pace with technological advances. There are already three dimensions of progress towards this goal: understanding the existing examples of the brain through neuroscience, simulating and building de novo intelligence in software and robotic forms and integrating human and machine capabilities with brain-computer interfaces, creating the biomolecular interface of integrating organic and inorganic material.

Social sciences
The question arises about how seemingly subjective and nuanced fields like politics could become information sciences. In the short term this is already happening with citizen journalism and collective organization through social networking (examples: flashmob protests and Twitter Iran election feedback). In the longer term, it is imaginable that political artificial intelligences, pleasantly absent the agency problem and special interests of human politicians, could start to perform low level political tasks and over time be used to a much larger degree in policy formation, public resource allocation and administration of nation state affairs.

Synthetic biology enables green petroleum

The good news about the number of worldwide vehicles, approximately 1 billion at present and expected to double in the next few decades, is the number of fossil fuel alternatives feverishly underway, many of which have established pilot projects and are expected to launch in selected commercial markets in 2011.

Synbio enables green petroleum

The current killer app of synthetic biology, the programming and engineering of biology, is green petroleum.

Several companies are developing improved versions of fossil fuels which can be easily substituted into the existing worldwide fuel infrastructure for autos, planes, etc. at approximately the same cost of fossil fuels (oil is presently $80 per barrel). Pilot plants are underway and commercial introduction is expected in 2011. Sapphire Energy and Synthetic Genomics are working with algal fuel, ramping the highly efficient natural process of algae creating petroleum through photosynthesis.

Other companies such as Amyris Biotechnologies are using synthetic biology to generate ethanol, and LS9 is synthesizing carbohydrates into petroleum with designer microbes. In the farther future, late-generation biofuels are contentious but already being envisioned by companies like Craig Venter’s Synthetic Genomics, employing carbon dioxide (CO2) as a feedstock for bacteria to convert into methane using molecular hydrogen as the energy source.

Green petroleum vs. electric vehicles
There may be less of a competition between transportation fuel alternatives and more of a market suitability analysis governing which choices arise in which areas. Large markets like the U.S. are already showing signs of both, or all, alternatives arising. Markets and countries with other parameters such as smaller size, increased government involvement and more stringent emissions regulations my make a strategic commitment towards certain choices, for example an interesting train and EV-sharing program announced in Denmark.

International electric vehicle leader Better Place notes that the ‘Goldilocks’ markets for greenfield electric vehicle networks are countries that are not too big to risk the introduction of such a disruptive solution and not too small such that economies of scale would not work. The poster child market for the company is Israel, with has networks of charging stations already installed in Tel Aviv and plans to build another 100 in Jerusalem for the mass availability of electric cars in 2011.

Role of B.S. in Advanced Society

B.S. is a deeper philosophical topic than it might seem at first glance. Two interesting books contemplate the matter: B.S. and Philosophy (2006) and On B.S. (2005).

What is the role of B.S. in advanced society? Since it exists, it must have some role, possibly related to conflict reduction and social lubrication. A second reason for B.S. could be the complex values hierarchies in which individuals and societies operate. Social pressure and belongingness may trump truth as values. When someone is asked a question, the presupposition is that he or she may be able to answer and the inclination of the person asked is to try to respond even if a misrepresentation, e.g.; B.S., occurs.

These authors and others agree that B.S. has proliferated from the past to the present. Given that, what could be said about the future, is B.S. likely to increase or decrease? In the short term it will probably continue to increase but could then be reduced in the longer term with the advent of more advanced technology.

Personalized hypertargeted B.S.
On one hand, technology is increasing the detectibility of B.S., suggesting that B.S. could go down in the future. On the other hand, information is continuing to explode, providing more potential venues for B.S., suggesting that B.S. could go up in the future. B.S. is like spam or commercials, growing, but simultaneously control mechanisms are also growing to mediate interactions. Although B.S. could be more insidious, less detectible and even desirable when it is highly personalized and hypertargeted such as marketing is starting to be now.

Politicians replaced by Artificial Intelligences
Considering fields ranging from science, with a zero-low tolerance for B.S., to politics, with a high tolerance for B.S., it is possible in the future that it would be desirable to replace people in high-B.S. professions with Artificial Intelligences. This would solve the agency problem and special interests control overnight. Policy debates could be resolved by running a million different permutations via virtual simulation varying every parameter of a given policy change such that overall utility is maximized.

Affinity Capital

A key concept in the 2.0 Economy is affinity capital. Deeper levels of information about every economic transaction are starting to be available such that individuals, businesses and communities can be very specific in directing and democratizing their capital. In many cases, products can be chosen that are organic, recyclable, fair trade, made from sustainable materials and made by companies with fair labor practices or whatever affinities or attributes the buyer cares about.

Affinity-directed capital can influence both cash inflows and outflows. Affinity inflows are the money earned. Earners can now be more selective by checking Corporate Social Responsibility reports if thinking of working for large companies, by being entrepreneurs and contractors, finding projects on website marketplaces like TopCoder (software programming), oDesk (professional services) and 99 designs (graphic design) or by having clients seek them directly through their web activities and content. A taxonomy of affinity capital marketplace links is available here.

Affinity capital influences capital outflows too: investing, donating and purchasing. In investing, socially-responsible investing (SRI) mutual funds have been available for several years, and now peer-to-peer lending and social venture capital platforms allow investors to direct capital into these asset classes too. Philanthropy is merging with investing in cases like Kiva where investors find a lower or blended financial return is acceptable when social outcomes can also be achieved. The SocialCapitalMarkets conference has continued to draw several hundred worldwide social entrepreneurs to talk about how to bring social change with economic transactions at their annual September conference in San Francisco. The organization also sponsors The Hub, twelve worldwide physical spaces for social capital markets collaboration.

Affinity purchasing, voting with dollars based on product attributes, is another way of democratizing capital as consumers and businesses check websites like ClimateCooler, the Fair Trade Federation and others to see how socially and environmentally friendly products are before buying or purchasing directly from green product websites like GreenHome or other affinity-based marketplaces.

Socially-responsible and environmentally-friendly are some of the biggest affinity attributes but the key point is that deep attribute knowledge means that capital can be directed granularly to ANY affinity attribute.

FutureThink: the Mindset of the Future

To think strategically about the future, it is necessary to realize that the mindset of today may be outdated for appropriately contemplating the future. The inadequacy of current human minds is sometimes given as a possible reason that humans may not be able to understand the full physics of the universe (multiple dimensions, multiple universes) or design artificial general intelligence.

One technique to improve the current mindset is to try deriving future intellectual norms from historically trending principles.

There are other examples of this concept. Successful athletes do not move to where the ball is now but where it is going to be. Ray Kurzweil exhorts not to invent a future object based on today’s technology, but rather where the technology will be in the future.

Three key principles and one meta-principle are discussed below.

1. Increase in humaneness: The first historical principle that can be identified is an increase in humaneness. Over time, there are new tiers of behavior that are deemed inhumane and become unacceptable. For example, slavery was acceptable in past eras but is not now, many societies have moved away from capital punishment and diminished discrimination is ongoing. Some contemporary issues are the rights of homosexuals, and noise and light pollution. In the future, it could be seen as inhumane to keep people waiting, or bored, or under-actualized, or without personalized-temperature control, or exposed to air pollution or disease toxins emitted by others.

Medicine and dentistry are obvious fields of increased humaneness. Today state-of-the-art treatment from 100 years ago seems primitive and barbaric. When seen from the lens of the future, it is easy to contemplate a time where people would be shocked to be operated on with a knife; we are already starting to see this now as da Vinci robotic surgery is 90% less invasive than traditional methods.

2. Increase in choices: A second historical principle is an increase in choices. For example, in music, with the advent of records, industry insiders were afraid that people would stop listening to the radio, however there was a boom in both as they reinforced each other and expanded music-listening as a category. If a new concept provides value, it helps to refine, stratify and expand the whole market. Contemporary examples are TiVo, YouTube and free e-books spurring traditional sales.

3. Decrease in limitations: The third idea is related to the second, not just are there more choices but there are new choices. For example, population growth may be a problem if only certain areas of the Earth can be inhabited and if resources are constrained, but FutureTech may open up living in places that were formerly uninhabitable (for example, the Seasteading Institute is investigating the feasibility of water-based settlements). Resources could become more abundant such as is happening now with solar and wind energy and the possibility of repurposing of cellulosic plant waste for fuel or food with synthetic biology. A significantly higher population could be supportable on Earth. Today’s constraints will not be tomorrow’s constraints.

Meta-principle: Abundance
These three principles, increase in humaneness, increase in choices and decrease in limitations are all aspects of the overarching principle of abundance. With abundance, there is more in every dimension, not a world of either/or scarcity. For example, a classic futurist thought experiment is whether someone would forsake their embodied form by uploading their mind to a computer. This is a perfect example of the fallacy of applying current thinking, e.g.; today’s resource scarcity mindset, to future scenarios. A future seems much more likely where many options would be possible. People may have many digital backup copies of their mind files, possibly multiple copies engaging in different activities, as well as one or more embodied forms, rather than an either/or choice of identity representation. An increase in options in existing and new possibility spaces, physical, intellectual, emotional and philosophical, is the hallmark of abundance thinking about future scenarios.

Preventive Medicine and Docs vs. Genomics

Despite NIH Director Francis Collins’ strong support of personalized genomics (he claims he lost 15 pounds after finding out through direct-to-consumer genetic testing that he is at higher risk for Type 2 Diabetes) and noting that the only way to successfully transition to the genomic era is with a skilled professional work force, doctors are taciturn about embracing genomics, and rarely try it even when it is made available to them and their patients for free (less than 5% uptake in a recent example with El Camino Hospital and DNA Direct making genomic testing available to 1000 physicians).

Top 10 reasons doctors will probably not be the ones implementing genomic data in patient care, in rank order. Physicians...

1. think they have to be the domain experts of any health area they direct for patients and are too constrained, unwilling or unable to be a genomics domain expert
2. do not see the clinical utility of genomics
3. have the attitude that genomics is optional, not required
4. have a precedent for non-adoption of preventive medicine tools as evidenced by slow uptake of molecular diagnostics
5. driven by liability, malpractice fears
6. self-direct per insurance non-reimbursability
7. believe genomics overconsumes scarce medical resources
8. are already cost, time, new knowledge acquisition constrained
9. are resistant to change and enjoy autonomy in directing their own practices
10. do not have specific tools for implementing genomics in their practices

Number one reason physicians would adopt genomics:

1. if their peers did

Physicians are intelligent and could easily adopt genomics
In reality the way that genomics adoption unfolds in the traditional health care system could be straightforward. Once regulated, physicians would have no choice but to adopt. Whole human genomes would be on file in patient Electronic Medical Records (EMR) and genomics tests could be a few more items on the standard blood test menu where primary care physicians interpret results within quantified ranges. Even though physicians are spending on average only 12 minutes with each patient per year in the US, they are required to spend 100-200 hours per year on Continuing Medical Education, and being quite intelligent, could easily master the basics of delivering genomic medicine.

Best quotes from the September 2009 National Coalition for Professional Education in Genetics (NCHPEG) meeting:

• “Not only is genomic data useless, educating physicians about genomic data is useless”
• “Learning about genomics might be useful to my practice, so would speaking Spanish, but I’m not going to do it”

Solution: new care provider tier for Preventive Medicine

The disincentives to physician adoption of genomic medicine are really part of the bigger issue of how societies are going to shift to preventive medicine in general.

The traditional health care model of physicians and insurance companies is probably not going to deliver preventive health, a new tier of care providers, entrepreneurs, is.

Figure 1. Future Health

Image: MS Futures Group, Oct. 2009

A model for the future of health care is presented in Figure 1. The patient is at the center, increasingly taking responsibility for managing their own health. Easy-to-use tools, both devices and web-based software, could provide the first shell of actionable health information to individuals. Over time (decades), there is no reason that the primary care provider could not be superseded by automated health monitoring tools.

New Era Preventive Care Specialists: the Health Advisor
The next preventive medicine shell is the new tier of health care providers. When consumers say “I have my genomic data, now what?” traditional doctors say, “I have no idea what to do with that” or “That is not clinically useful,” but the New Era Preventive Care Specialists do not. They show what to do with personalized data by using genome-in-the-cloud browser tools to make genomic data intelligible and actionable. They incorporate genomic data, together with family history and current phenotype and biomarker data into an overall care plan (when is Keas finally going to launch? what about Omicia?), with a systemic approach (when will Entelos license their virtual patient technology to consumer-pointing applications?).

The Health Advisor (analagous to the Financial Advisor) could be one of the fastest growing new job areas. The business model may be traditionally trained experts in general medicine, genomics, nutrition and sports medicine coming together in private clinics to work in the new paradigm of exploding volumes of digitized health data (both health metrics collected daily and genomic, transcriptomic, etc. data) together with EMRs. One first service could be EMR assembly where patients own and control the data. Other services could include all manner of personalized health plan creation and monitoring. Anti-aging treatments would be another logical area for inclusion.

Health Savings Account (HSA) Dollars
Accustomed to the third-party pay model, consumers may object to paying for medical services (although they do shell out several billions of dollars per year for weight-loss products) but instead of paying directly out-of-pocket, it is quite possible that preventive care services could be purchased with pre-tax HSA dollars, as more than half of U.S. large-company plans may be offering as an insurance option. This marketing point that should not be lost on the new era of preventive health providers.

Status of Stem Cell Research

The World Stem Cell Summit in Baltimore MD held September 21-23, 2009 attracted several hundred professionals to discuss contemporary science, industry and societal perspectives on stem cells. Attendance was high, but down from last year and, similar to cancer meetings, a key theme several keynote speakers acknowledged was

the overall lack of truly meaningful progress in stem cell research in the last twenty years.

Science Focus: Safe Stem Cell Generation
The science tracks featured current research in different stem cell areas including the production of safe hESC (human embryonic stem cells) and iPS (induced pluripotent stem cells) for use in regenerative medicine, the research and therapeutic use of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and reports from specific sub-fields: cancer stem cells, cardiovascular stem cells and neural stem cells. Overall, the work presented was incremental and in many cases, confirming what has been known already, such as a growing confirmation that cancer stem cells are probably responsible for triggering the resurgence of cancer but cannot at present be distinguished from other cells at the time of tumor removal.

Contract Research Demand: Cell Therapies and Recombinant Proteins
One stem cell area experiencing growth is contract research organizations, the outsourcing tool of choice for research labs and pharmaceutical companies in the production of biological materials. For large contract research manufacturing such as Basel, Switzerland-based Lonza, the biggest demand area is in cell therapies. Cell therapies denote the introduction of any type of new cell into other tissue for therapeutic purposes, but in the current case generally means any variety of stem cell-based therapies. Other large contract research manufacturing organizations such as Morrisville, NC-based Diosynth (owned by Schering Plough) lead in biologics (antibodies, protein production) production, an important area for nextgen biotech where synthetic biology could have a big impact.

For smaller contract research manufacturing organizations producing test compounds (e.g.; 1 liter for $10,000) and scaling to Phase I and II clinical trial quantities such as Baltimore MD-based Paragon Bioservices, the biggest demand is for recombinant proteins. Recombinant proteins are created by inserting recombinant DNA into a plasmid of rapidly reproducing bacteria and can take many useful forms such as antibodies, antigens, hormones and enzymes.

Venture capital hot topics: zinc fingers, RT PCR, tech transfer
Zinc fingers (small protein domains that bind DNA, RNA, proteins and small molecules) have been surfacing in a variety of cutting-edge biotech innovations. In July 2009, St. Louis, MO-based biotechnology chemical producer Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) announced the creation of the first genetically modified mammals using zinc finger nuclease (ZFN) technology to execute modifications such as taking away the tail of the zebrafish. A second example of recent landmark research involving zinc fingers is that of Carlos Barbas at Scripps who uses zinc finger proteins to reprogram serine recombinases as a more specific alternative to the homologous recombination method of genome modification. In addition, the Barbas lab has a useful web-based zinc finger protein design tool available for public use, Zinc Finger Tools.

Real-time PCR offerings continue to expand and flourish with declining prices as startup newcomer Helixis announced a $10,000 real-time PCR solution at the conference.

Bethesda, MD-based Toucan Capital, a leading investor in stem cells and regenerative medicine discussed their sixteen interesting portfolio companies such as San Diego CA-based VetStem who is conducting joint and tendon stem cell therapies for race horses.

Johns Hopkins has one of the country’s leading technology transfer programs, licensing a growing number of technologies each year (nearly 100 in the last fiscal year), and has a searchable, though not extremely user-friendly, website.

Personalized genomics inflection point

One of the world’s fastest accelerating technologies is that of genomic sequencing. The first whole human genome (6 billion base pairs) was sequenced at a cost of $3b and was completed in 2003. The current cost is $20,000 for researchers (Complete Genomics) and $48,000 for consumers (with Illumina’s EveryGenome program). Leading third-generation sequencing company Pacific Biosciences affirmed at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Personal Genomes meeting September 14-17, 2009 that the company has 12 prototype instruments in operation and continues to be on track for ~$100 (“the cost of a nice dinner”) whole human genome sequencing to be commercially available in the second half of 2010. NimbleGen indicated that they may have a $2,000 exome sequencer available in 2010.

In a challenging venture capital climate, Pacific Biosciences was able to close an additional $68m round in financing on August 12, 2009. Leading commercial sequencer Complete Genomics was also notable in closing a $45m D round on August 24, 2009. The company has sequenced 14 whole human genomes to date, and hopes to sequence exponentially more, 10,000, in 2010 at a minimum cost of $5,000 per genome.

Viability of DTC genomics sector
Where the genomics technology sector has rosy prognostications, the direct-to-consumer personalized genomics market has volatility. Events in the last several months have led to questions of the sector’s viability with upheavals at the three leading companies, 23andme (“Avey Leaves 23andMe to Start Alzheimer's Research Foundation Using DTC Genomics Firm's Platform"), deCODEme (“deCODE close to broke” – Augusty 11, 2009) and Navigenics (“Navigenics Names Jonathan Lord, MD to Serve as President and Chief Executive Officer” April 7, 2009). Absent innovation, DTC genomics companies are a “window business” in the sense that the window for their current offerings may only be open for a short time with the advent of whole human genome sequencing and standardized public multi-SNP condition interpretation tools.

Figure 1. Direct-to-Consumer Genomics Offerings: ongoing price declines (Chart PDF)

As depicted in Figure 1, there are three types of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) genomics offerings currently available directly to individuals: one-off SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) tests for specific conditions and paternity tests, multi-SNP risk assessment tests mapping several SNPs to dozens of disease conditions and whole human genome sequencing assessing hundreds of disease risks. The five companies offering multi-SNP risk assessments are: 23andme ($399 for 111 conditions), deCODEme (42 conditions for $985), Navigenics (28 conditions for $999), Gene Essence (84 conditions for $1,195) and Pathway Genomics (77 conditions for $249). 23andme, deCODEme and Navigenics are the most transparent, disclosing the specific SNPs, research references and risk assessment methodologies for their tests, Gene Essence discloses SNPs and Pathway Genomics does not disclose anything. A detailed condition and SNP analysis is here.

Slow DTC genomics adoption
DTC genomics has had slow adoption so far for several reasons, first, there has been very little marketing, few consumers know of the availability and value proposition of DTC genomics services. Second, since automated tools are not yet available, many people are not interested in preventively managing their health, and may still perceive it to be in the responsibility and domain of health care professionals. Third, the conventional but incorrect view is that genetic information is already known (from family history), negative and deterministic. Fourth, as initially pointed out by ExperimentalMan David Ewing Duncan, there are conflicting interpretations from DTC services for the same conditions such as heart attack. This is because the scientific community has little knowledge and agreement yet regarding multi-SNP conditions. DTC companies are looking at different SNPs, assigning different quantitative risk values and employing differing estimates of overall population averages which all contribute to heterogeneous interpretations of risk for the same condition.

VC guide to anti-aging biotechnology investing

Several promising startup companies focused on the nascent but obviously significant and growing anti-aging biotechnology space were present or discussed with interest at the recent SENS4 (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) conference in Cambridge, U.K., September 3rd – 7th, 2009 (program) (full conference report).

1. Epeius Biotechnologies, San Marino, CA, USA: Rexin-G, a tumor-targeted injectable gene delivery system
2. FoldRx, Cambridge, MA, USA: small molecule therapeutics to treat protein misfolding diseases, and bind and clear undesired molecules
3. Gencia Corporation, Charlottesville, VA, USA: mitochondrial DNA rejuvenation using the rhTFAM (recombinant-human mitochondrial transcription factor A) protein
4. Genscient, Fountain Valley, CA, USA: novel chronic disease therapeutics by combining genomics and selective screening (a large Alzheimer’s Disease genetic study is in progress with Kronos and TGen)
5. Knome, Cambridge, MA, USA: whole human genome sequencing (consumer offering)
6. Neotropix, Malvern, PA, USA: oncolytic viruses for the treatment of solid tumors
7. Pentraxin Therapeutics Ltd, London, UK: small molecule drug CPHPC specifically targeting SAP (serum form of amyloid P) and removing it from the blood and brains of patients with Alzheimer’s Disease
8. Repeat Diagnostics, Vancouver, BC, Canada: telomere length measurement for total lymphocyte and granulocyte populations (consumer offering)
9. Retrotope, Los Altos Hills, CA, USA: using isotope effect to slow down damage pathways and control metabolic processes associated with oxidative stress
10. StemCor Systems, Inc., Menlo Park, CA, USA: bone marrow harvesting system
11. T.A. Sciences, New York, NY, USA: telomerase activation via the single molecule TA-65, licensed from Geron Corporation (consumer offering)
12. TriStem Corporation, London, UK: retrodifferentiation technology to create stem cells from mature adult cells

So discontinuous a discontinuity

A key aspect of thinking systemically about the future is being able to see how rapidly advancing technologies across many fields interrelate. Whatever next Internet-like discontinuity or singularity occurs will influence whatever comes thereafter. It is likely that some high percentage of what are now thought to be expected future advances will recede or be reshaped at minimum, for example:

• If all chronic disease and aging becomes controllable and there is effective immortality, does uploading matter as much?
• If artificial general intelligence is achieved, how does that change the exigency and requirements of molecular nanotechnology?
• If affordable space launch and space-based solar power is achieved, what happens to ethanol, electrical and other terrestrial alternative vehicle and transportation infrastructure solutions?
• If immersive virtual reality and post-material scarcity are achieved, does molecular nanotechnology matter and what happens to global political systems?
• If whole human genome testing is available, do single SNP tests go away? If there are home health monitors and nanodiagnostics, do primary care physicians go away?