Broader Perspective

Design and the disruptive startup: dynamic pivoting

2012-01-22T10:50:00.000-08:00

In the mashup world of life, business, and web 2.0, spurred on by the Apple-ification of the world (iLife - as a concept not a product), one new idea is applying design to business models, and really by extension, applying design to everything.

Unfortunately, this does not mean as one might think, applying aesthetic principles, conceptually and literally, to business, business models, or any life context, adding beauty to function, and thereby function to function, and questioning the right proportionality of form and function.

Rather, at present applying design to business models means more basically, using design tools and design thinking in a business context, specifically, in the conduct of an iterative prototyping process with users.

In business 1.0, an entrepreneur would dream up an idea and write a business plan. In business 2.0, the claim is that entrepreneurs should interview dozens of potential customers to pivot through value propositions for ideas that solve the biggest customer pain points. Customer acquisition is tantamount, in a 'get, keep, grow' cycle. Elliptical tools like the business model canvas are proposed as support for this iterative prototyping process.

Terahertz information compression era

2012-01-15T20:44:00.000-08:00

Information compression eras is an important area of futuretech: the progression from analog to digital and the developing friction for the next era.

Analog and digital are modes of modulating information onto the electromagnetic spectrum with increasing efficacy.

The next era could be characterized by the even greater effectiveness of electromagnetic spectrum control, particularly moving to multidimensional attribute modulation. Already DNA is a potential alternative encoding system with four and maybe eight combinations instead of the 1s and 0s of the digital era. Terahertz networking (Clariphy, Aurrion) and data provenance are early guides in the progress to the next node of information compression.

Personal social CRM

2012-01-08T23:53:00.000-08:00

The new social CRM (customer relationship management) is personal social CRM. Social CRM is when businesses try to access the social network interactions of their customers for the purpose of extending business relationships. An example would be a customer tweeting something about a product, which a customer advocate notices and posts in the company’s online help forum. The company’s marketing staff is flagged and then responds by retweeting or other appropriate measures.

Personal social CRM is applying these corporate social CRM principles to managing interactions within one’s own social network. The latest websites for personal social CRM include Nimble and Contactually; other somewhat similar tools include Rapportive and Highrise. Nimble and Contactually attempt to show who is important in personal email networks through algorithms that count interaction frequency, length of time for response, and CCs versus direct interactions. Presumably future algorithms could include other influence variables like social ‘klout.’

One de facto and perhaps more useful functionality aspect of personal social CRM sites is that they are essentially a web-based API for social networks like LinkedIn. Different kinds of searches, sorting and management of contacts, for example with context tagging, are available with these tools. This could allow a new way to interact with a greater number of people more effectively.

Top 10 technology trends for 2012

2012-01-01T11:10:00.000-08:00

1. Mobile is the platform: smartphone apps & device proliferation
2. Cloud computing: big data era, hadoop, noSQL, machine learning
3. Gamification of behavior and content generation
4. Mobile payments and incentives (e.g.; Amex meets FourSquare)
5. Life by Siri, Skyvi, etc. intelligent software assistants
6. Happiness 2.0 and social intelligence: mindfulness, calming tech, and empathy building
7. Social graph prominence in search (e,g.; music, games, news, shopping)
8. Mobile health and quantified self-tracking devices: towards a continuous personal information climate
9. Analytics, data mining, algorithms, automation, robotics
10. Cloud culture: life imitates computing (e.g.; Occupy, Arab Spring)

Further out - Gesture-based computing, Home automation IF sensors, WiFi thermostat, Enterprise social networks

Is it ever coming? - Cure for the common cold, Driverless cars

Looking back at Predictions for 2011: right or wrong?

Right: Mobile is the platform, Device proliferation, Big data explosion, Group shopping
On the cusp: Crowdsourced labor, Quantified self tracking gadgets and app, Connected media and on-demand streaming video
Not yet: Sentiment engines, 3-D printing, Real-time economics

Crowdsourcing the stock market

2011-12-25T16:35:00.000-08:00

New market tools are emerging that could be much better (real-time and objective) indicators of performance than the traditional methods of speculation-driven stock market price, quarterly reporting, and financial statements.

These tech tools are a nice response to the perceived social economic malaise of the times, and could help to realize some of the new thinking promulgated by both theorists and activists that markets are more of a Darwinian game of the fittest rather than an invisible hand meeting favorably for all parties.

The new market tools - real-time performance indicators:

Prediction markets (SimExchange, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Intrade) for unit sales data
Real-time purchasing feeds (Blippy, Google Wallet, social shopping sites) for the aggregation of real-time purchase data
Social media check-ins (FourSquare, Facebook, etc.) for revenue prediction
Forum badging and site gamification (Badgeville) for measuring the digital economics of brand sentiment

Programmable RNA and other recent advances in synthetic biology

2011-12-18T17:34:00.000-08:00

There were 50-100 attendees at the Cell Press-sponsored Synthetic Biology conference at the University of California, San Francisco held on December 14, 2011. There was the usual acknowledgment of the field’s status (early-stage), potential impact (considerable), and articulation of what is needed (easy-to-use tools, reliable at-scale design and manufacturing processes, and standardized interoperable parts libraries) that has been typical at group gatherings (e.g.; SB 5.0) for the last few years. Also the point about a better marketing approach to attract scientists and public support to the field, something more enticing than the admittedly deadpan…

We pipette colorless liquids from one tube to another … we’re trying to cure cancer and change the world.

What was different was the degree of sophistication in the approaches, the easy multi-disciplinarity that researchers are bringing to the field, a more comprehensive understanding of the constituent materials (for example, the 5’ DNA does a lot of things: degradation, elongation, binding, etc. in a dynamic system where different processes come online to change resource use per osmolarity, temperature, etc.), and the contemplation of process portability across model organisms, for example from yeast to mammalian cells. The conference structure focused on the overall status and issues of the industry in a panel with leading scientists, and had talks regarding foundational technologies and applications.

Key points made by synthetic biology visionary Drew Endy (Stanford)

Biology is the best manufacturing partner we’ll find, it has taken over the earth; biology is interesting as both a type of inquiry (we don’t understand everything yet) and as a building material
Design experts (e.g.; from RSID, the New School, etc.) should be brought into biological design
Bio-manufacturing is big, but storing data in cells could be bigger
Metrology advances are needed, in units, reference standards, etc.; for example when shipping a gene expression module to colleagues in Shenzhen, what units should be employed?
4-D space-time programming languages is an important new area, only six people worldwide are thinking about this so far
We need to do regenerative medicine without scaffolds, we know biological cells can differentiate into 3-D, how can we engineer this to happen?
Synthetic biology needs to expand beyond the few workhorse chemicals used all the time like theophylline and tetracycline
An important application area is drug design since small molecules, the main current paradigm used in drug development, are limited by their surface area, where they can travel to in the body, and other internal properties

Key conference themes

RNA as a programmable material
Programmable materials are an important input to synthetic biology as they may allow ongoing control over the dynamic processes of living cells. RNA is exemplar as a programmable substrate since it can be used to sense the presence of small molecules in cells and control gene expression by influencing which proteins are made and many other cellular activities [1]. In the keynote talk, Gerald Joyce (Scripps) discussed the specifics of exploiting RNA with a technique analogous to PCR (polymerase chain reaction), where an exponential number of copies of DNA are made to trigger desired cellular behaviors. In this case, an exponential number of copies of certain ligands (building-block molecules that bind with other molecules to trigger reactions in cells) are made that a certain enzyme-making RNA binds to for carrying out a desired cellular function [2].

Not only can RNA be used on a unitary basis to direct cellular actions, it can also be used as a component in constructing gene networks that serve as sophisticated molecular control devices like switches and circuits. Christina Smolke (Stanford) presented research using RNA to build synthetic controllers, for example a ribozyme-based device that can be used to detect metabolites non-invasively, a ribosome binding site-based device that can degrade harmful chemicals into neutral products, and a splicing-based device that can be used to target cell death [3]. A potential application was discussed using a synthetic RNA device to regulate cell signaling and T-cell proliferation in mammalian cells [4]. Alan Arkin (UC Berkeley and LBNL) suggested desirable ways to increase the complexity of synthetically generated devices, for example, assembling complexity from the constituent properties of the materials that is modular or context-free in deployment, and by having diverse RNA control elements on a single transcript [5]. This could also make devices more replicable.

Manipulating organelles
After the theme of RNA as a programmable material and synthetic genetic network regulatory element, another de facto theme was the capability to manipulate organelles.

David Savage (UC Berkeley) presented work regarding carboxysomes (protein-enclosed bacterial organelles). Synthetic organelles could be constructed that would be useful for a variety of cellular activities, including improving on current biological processes like RuBisCO leakage (an enzyme involved in the first major step of carbon fixation). Synthetic organelles could be developed based on previous work characterizing carboxysomes with shell and cargo fluorescent tagging [6], and recent work improving the stability and well-formedness of shells through shell-protein modification, particularly by adding a novel protein, CsoS1D, discovered by Cheryl Kerfeld’s lab (UC Berkeley and LBNL) [7,8].

Wallace Marshall (UCSF) discussed the importance of understanding and controlling organelle size, shape, and composition, the trade-offs between lipid and starch storage and controlled metabolism, for example. Tuning flagellar length could be important in the understanding and remedy of ciliary diseases [9], and experimental research suggested in one case that the quantity of LF4 (long flagella) protein being injected could be the key fulcrum of the control system. Organelle-tuning could have a broad range of useful applications, for example tuning up and down the ability of vacuoles to tolerate toxic compounds.

Applying synthetic biology to drug design
Michelle Chang (UC Berkeley) pointed out how the toxicity of fluorine makes it useful in drugs, and perhaps synthetic biology techniques could improve its effectiveness. A naturally-occurring fluorine-specific enzyme (FIK) was examined that demonstrated dramatic improvement in recognizing molecules [10]. Leor Weinberger (Gladstone Institute and UCSF) discussed synthetic viral circuits called therapeutic interfering particles (TIPs) that have been shown to reduce HIV/AIDS infection rates. The TIPs replicate conditionally in the presence of the pathogen and spread between individuals [11].

Developing foundational technologies
Hana El-Samad (UCSF) discussed the benefits of using hybrid biological and computer-based systems, where software algorithms were used to control a gene expression circuit’s behavior in real-time through a light-responsive module [12].

John Dueber (UC Berkeley) discussed the benefits of controlling the volume of enzymes expressed in cells, optimizing flux through cells. A desirable tool for this is combinatorial libraries to manage expression in multi-gene pathways. Further, when there are flux limitations in the pathway that cannot be managed with gene expression, there has been some interesting work building synthetic scaffolds to co-locate pathway enzymes around the areas of interest [13].

Nathan Hillson (LBNL) presented ways to automate and speed up the engineering cycle (design-build-test) with a component repository, selected components, and assembled components. Software design automation for assembly tools were discussed such as the JBEI-ICE repository platform and the GLAMM design tool.

References

Liu CC, Arkin AP. The case for RNA. Science. 2010 Nov 26;330(6008):1185-6.
Lam BJ, Joyce GF. An isothermal system that couples ligand-dependent catalysis to ligand-independent exponential amplification. J Am Chem Soc. 2011 Mar 9;133(9):3191-7.
Liang JC, Bloom RJ, Smolke CD. Engineering biological systems with synthetic RNA molecules. Mol Cell. 2011 Sep 16;43(6):915-26.
Chen YY, Jensen MC, Smolke CD. Genetic control of mammalian T-cell proliferation with synthetic RNA regulatory systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 May 11;107(19):8531-6.
Lucks JB, Qi L, Mutalik VK, Wang D, Arkin AP. Versatile RNA-sensing transcriptional regulators for engineering genetic networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 May 24;108(21):8617-22.
Savage DF, Afonso B, Chen AH, Silver PA. Spatially ordered dynamics of the bacterial carbon fixation machinery. Science. 2010 Mar 5;327(5970):1258-61.
Roberts EW, Cai F, Kerfeld CA, Cannon GC, Heinhorst S. Isolation and Characterization of the Prochlorococcus Carboxysome Reveals the Presence of the Novel Shell Protein CsoS1D. J Bacteriol. 2011 Dec 9.
Klein MG, Zwart P, Bagby SC, Cai F, Chisholm SW, Heinhorst S, Cannon GC, Kerfeld CA. Identification and structural analysis of a novel carboxysome shell protein with implications for metabolite transport. J Mol Biol. 2009 Sep 18;392(2):319-33.
Wemmer KA, Marshall WF. Flagellar length control in chlamydomonas--paradigm for organelle size regulation. Int Rev Cytol. 2007;260:175-212.
Weeks AM, Coyle SM, Jinek M, Doudna JA, Chang MC. Structural and biochemical studies of a fluoroacetyl-CoA-specific thioesterase reveal a molecular basis for fluorine selectivity. Biochemistry. 2010 Nov 2;49(43):9269-79.
Metzger VT, Lloyd-Smith JO, Weinberger LS. Autonomous targeting of infectious superspreaders using engineered transmissible therapies. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Mar;7(3):e1002015.
Milias-Argeitis A, Summers S, Stewart-Ornstein J, Zuleta I, Pincus D, El-Samad H, Khammash M, Lygeros J. In silico feedback for in vivo regulation of a gene expression circuit. Nat Biotechnol. 2011 Nov 6;29(12):1114-6.
Whitaker WR, Dueber JE. Metabolic pathway flux enhancement by synthetic protein scaffolding. Methods Enzymol. 2011;497:447-68.

Empathy-building 101: the top 10 list

2011-12-11T13:50:00.000-08:00

Some important social intelligence skills are empathy, compassion, and a positive mental outlook. These skills can be taught as any other skills such as leadership and goal-setting. Some of the important aspects of developing empathy are self-awareness, self-compassion, active listening, and the ability to experience or identify with the thoughts and emotions of others.

One way to deliver social intelligence-building experiences is on the mobile platform. A virtual coach ('Siri 2.0') can send you randomly-timed messages like the examples below. If you are interested, sign up now for the beta launch the DIYgenomics Social Intelligence Mobile app by messaging our personal virtual coaches led by Marbet Grant 650-209-0872 or marbetgrant AT gmail.com.

What is one of your best qualities? Think about how you know you have this quality. Who else has this quality? Where are useful places in your life that you might use this quality?
Think of three goals you plan to accomplish today or tomorrow and write them down
When you really stop to think about it, what is really great about your life right now?
Where are you today? How are you feeling in your body right now?
What do you feel grateful for right now?
What’s one of your biggest flaws that a lot of other people might have too?
Think of a recent situation where you noticed the emotion experienced by someone else and get a sense what that must feel like
Take a moment, drop inside and get a sense of how you are felling right now, describe this with some emotion words
Think of a recent situation with someone else that didn’t go as well as you wanted. Put yourself in the other person’s position and identify what positive intent they may have had for the way they behaved
Ask yourself what you really want out of this current work project (or job or relationship). Say this back to yourself, ‘so what you really want in this [project, job, relationship] is _________’ and see what you notice

Anxious uncanniness drives technological phase change

2011-12-04T15:23:00.000-08:00

There is an interesting link between philosophy, technology innovation, and complexity theory. A claim has arisen that people may be feeling unsettled, that they no longer belong to certain normative groups like ‘Americans’ or ‘doctors.’ One reason could be the fast pace of technology innovation and adoption which has been creating a pervasive, accelerating, and possibly irreversible culture of biotechnicity. Paradoxically, technology innovation may also be the resolution.

This feeling of being unsettled is that of experiencing an anxious uncanniness of what it means to be a doctor, a Christian, a New Yorker, or whatever. This has long been identified by philosophers (e.g.; Plato, Socrates, Kierkegaard, etc., and more recently Jonathan Lear) as (a lesser-known definition of) irony; when individuals experience a sense of dissumlation (dissimulation).

A further claim is not that anxious uncanniness is harmful or undesirable, but rather that ironic uncanny experiences should be cultivated as the only way out, a key means of growth. Growing by pushing out of one’s comfort zone is parallel to dynamics in the cycles of technology innovation and complexity theory. In technology innovation, the chaotic foment at the end of a paradigm (like the vacuum tube or perhaps oil) forces innovation into a new paradigm. In complex systems, after symmetry-breaking and the development of entropy, adding energy helps to rebalance systems to attain the next node of progress.

Big data quantitative analysis toolkit

2011-11-27T14:56:00.000-08:00

Just like data bytes may become much more richly modulated with attributes (an extension of data provenance; modulating data bytes with additional inspectable elements such as create/review/launch time stamps, and owner, quality, freshness, and controversy properties, etc.), so too may quantitative data sets.

There should be a ‘2.0 format’ standardized toolkit for quantitative data analysis that includes the top ten techniques often used to analyze data sets. These tools should be user-friendly, ideally as a widget overlay to websites, or otherwise easily accessible and usable by non-quant laypersons.

Suggested techniques for inclusion in the top ten most-useful data analysis tools:

Fourier transforms
Markov state models
Entropy analysis
Distribution analysis (e.g.; power law, Gaussian, etc.)
Progression analysis (e.g.; linear, geometric, exponential, discontinuous)
Qualitative math
Network node/group theory/graphing theory analysis
Complexity, chaos, turbulence, and perturbation modeling

It could become standard that these kinds of techniques are automatically run and displayed on large data sets.

Mental performance optimization

2011-11-20T14:10:00.000-08:00

Much time is devoted to maintaining physical health through exercise but almost nothing is done to maintain mental health. The positive psychology movement, happiness research, persuasive behavioral change techniques, calming technologies, and books such as the Neuro Revolution have helped to destigmatize mental health as a focal point for improvement. The next big wave in mental health and performance optimization could come from mobile phone apps. The continuous intimate experience with these inseparable human appendages makes them perfect tools for managing mental health.

The first generation of mental performance mobile apps has been mainly for data collection. Subsequent generations could extend into targeted interventional strategies and ongoing performance management. NLP (neuro-linguistic programming) techniques could be used to shift attention to productive areas, shape goals and action steps, reframe unpleasant experiences, identify and bring out internal resources, and otherwise facilitate better feelings and experiences.

Citizen science health tools

2011-11-13T16:16:00.000-08:00

The number of citizen science health and biology projects has been growing in the last few years due to a confluence of factors. Some of these include the plummeting cost of DNA sequencing, the availability of bioinformatics and other web-based data interpretation tools, the possibility of ordering direct-to-consumer blood tests, and having community DIYbio labs for experimentation, education, and support. DIYgenomics has developed a number of boilerplate tools to help in the design and conduct of citizen science health projects:

Study design and organization

Study design template

Legal/ethics

Sample informed consent form

Finance

Study budget template

Recruitment and marketing

Study flyers: multiple studies, aging study, vitamin deficiency study
Conference poster
Participant recruiting plan (per Genomera)

Quantization trends of the future: crowdsourcing and geolocation

2011-11-06T11:21:00.000-08:00

Two conferences held in San Francisco last week underline key future trends, the crowdsourcing of work (and maybe everything), and hyper-local mobile-phone based services such as payments. Thematically, crowdsourcing and mobile services both deal with quantization – the idea of resources being granularized to the smallest unit, and then directed fungibly and automatically to where they are needed and requested, like routing internet data packets. In this case labor units and targeted personalized mobile services can be delivered on a quantized basis. Market principles continue to seep into life with quantization models which typically provide superior value creation and exchange.

Crowdsourcing
CrowdConf2011 (November 1-2, 2011) was bigger and broader than CrowdConf2010. The main focus continued to be on crowdsourced labor, but these models are also emerging in e-government, consumer travel, entertainment, fundraising, and philanthropy (and health, though not included at CrowdConf). Software, professional services (i.e.; graphic design) and R&D have long been staples of crowdsourced labor, and these models are now being extending to almost all areas of the enterprise including sales, social CRM (customer relationship management) and finance, accounting, and administration.

Mobile-phone based services
Mobile is the platform. One billion smartphone users are expected by 2013 and app downloads grew explosively from 300 million in 2009 to five billion in 2010. Arguably, the mobile phone has become an indispensable human augmentation accessory: the loss of a phone is noticed within five minutes, versus the loss of a wallet which takes an hour. The intimate continuous connection individuals have with their mobile phones suggests the platform as a critical delivery mechanism for many important future services such as mental mood performance optimization.

Geo-Loco (November 3, 2011) focused on hyper-local mobile services delivery. The biggest growth area is mobile payment programs where the prevailing methods in use are 2-D barcodes (as used in Starbucks smartphone apps) and NFC (near field communication) chips which send encrypted data over short distances. The development of corporate and brand marketing strategies for mobile services delivery was another big focal area. The poster-child of success of branded smartphone apps, from Starbucks, allows payments, store locating, and checking nutritional information. Ironically, drinks can be configured out of 85,000 possibilities and shared with friends, but not actually ordered!

Job of the near-future: health advisor

2011-10-30T10:43:00.000-07:00

The health advisor is analogous to the financial advisor or mortgage broker that arose last decade when it became possible to trade stocks and get mortgage quotes on the internet. This advisor is familiar with the whole ecosystem of services and service providers in a sector whether finances, home buying and selling, or in this case, personalized health management.

The health advisor designs comprehensive wellness plans that integrate multiple health data streams such as family history, personal health history, genomics, and eventually microbiomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiles. The health advisor would recommend what type of genomic sequencing to sign up for (for example, 23andMe genotyping or Illumina whole human sequencing) and interpret the results and suggest action items. The health advisor would recommend and administer self-tracking programs and gadgets for diet, nutrition, medication and supplementation, exercise, and sleep management. The health advisor would recommend clinical trials or crowdsourced health studies that might be relevant for individuals to join. The health advisor could be compensated with pre-tax HSA (health savings account) dollars or other tax-advantaged funds.

This is a job category of the near future, as health advisor certification programs and wellness coaches are already arising.

Advances in translational antiaging skin research

2011-10-23T03:59:00.000-07:00

There are many exciting innovations in translational anti-aging skin research. Personalized genomics is an important emerging field of science being applied to human biology with applications in skin disease risk assessment, wellness profiling, and product response customization.

Simultaneously, there are promising anti-wrinkle remedies being commercialized such as cellular therapies, topical treatments, retinoid and botox substitutes, and advances in skin manufacturing initially developed by the military for battlefield healing are starting to be applied to the aesthetic dermatology market, for example, dermal substitutes, next-generation skin grafting, and spray-on skin.

Excerpted from Translational antiaging skin research.

Complement proteins: possible predictive biomarker of Alzheimer’s disease

2011-10-16T10:14:00.000-07:00

Recent research has uncovered more details about how the brain works. As brains develop, the many initially-formed synapses get pruned. How this occurs is important to understand as synapse pruning also occurs in neurodegenerative disease.

In synapse pruning, many mechanisms are operating together in a systems biology fashion, but one key dynamic is that protein molecules (complement proteins C1q and C3) are tagging weak synapses for elimination. For example, complement protein molecules are massively upregulated in Alzheimer’s disease. The Cq1 genes have been shown to come on very early in the case of glaucoma and are proposed to be a global dynamic of synaptic loss in neurodegenerative disease (e.g.; Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, Huntington’s disease, ALS, etc.).

The early and prominent role of complement genes and proteins suggests the possibility of measuring them as a predictive biomarker of neurodegenerative disease.

Steady advance of stem cell therapies

2011-10-09T09:46:00.000-07:00

Stem cell research and related therapies (including regenerative medicine and cellular therapies) is an industry with a strong possibility of having a significant near-term impact on worldwide public health. One reason is the industry’s linkage between policy, science, industry, and patient advocacy, as was clear in the attendance and programming at the 7th annual World Stem Cell Summit held in Pasadena CA, October 3-5. Other science-driven fields such as synthetic biology, nanomedicine, and aging might benefit from cultivating such a multi-disciplinary perspective. Stem cell therapies are useful not only in cell-replacement therapies, but also in disease modeling, drug discovery, and drug toxicity screening.

Disease therapeutics and clinical trial focus
Stem cell therapies are currently being applied to over 50 diseases particularly in the areas of heart, lung, neurodegenerative, and eye disease, and cancer and HIV. Dozens of companies are developing therapeutic solutions which are in different stages of clinical use and clinical trials. Some high-profile therapies include Dendreon’s Provenge for prostate cancer, Geron’s first-ever embryonic stem cell trials for spinal cord injury, Fibrocell’s laViv cellular therapy for wrinkles, and well-established commercial skin substitutes (Organogenesis’s Apligraf and Advanced BioHealing’s Dermagraft).

Policy
Stem cell policy issues under consideration include medical tourism, standards for large-scale stem cell manufacturing, and lingering ethical debates over the use of embryonic stem cells.

Science
Contemporary stem cell science advances include a focus on techniques for the direct reprogramming of cells from one lineage to another without having to return to pluripotency as an intermediary step, improved means of generating and measuring induced pluripotent cells, and progress in approaches to neurodegenerative disease, for example establishing causal factors for early-onset Parkinson’s disease, generating neuronal cells and dopaminergic cells, and neural stem cell lumbar implantation clinical trials.

Blood Tests 2.0 advances with dried blood spot testing

2011-10-02T13:07:00.000-07:00

Moving into an era of preventive medicine and health self-hacking, blood tests 2.0 is an obvious area for expected innovation, moving whole classes of blood tests from $100+ lab-administered arm draws to fingerstick tests conducted at home. One of the most promising techniques for realizing blood tests 2.0 is dried blood spot (DBS) testing. From a biochemistry perspective, the volume of blood taken in a serum draw is not required for many tests; a few drops would be adequate for many tests. Some exciting recent progress in dried blood spot testing was announced with NanoInk’s protein biomarker detection platform, based on dip pen nanolithography, which was used to identify and quantitate four clinically-relevant cytokines. The technology cannot detect everything, but could possibly be used to identify hundreds of proteins, and pave the way for low-cost home blood marker monitoring.

Home-administered fingerstick tests are already available for several markers, although the cost is not necessarily cheaper and a health care professional may still need to be involved. Blood spots from a fingerstick are placed on filter paper to dry and then sent to a lab for analysis. Tests are available for vitamin D, hormone levels (including estradiol, progesterone, testosterone, and cortisol), cardiometabolic markers (including insulin, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, total, HDL and LDL cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, and triglycerides) from ZRT Labs. Theoretically, dozens of blood tests could be re-invented as fingerstick tests that are self-administered and interpreted in easy diagnostic readers or mobile-phone attached sensors.

Robotic benefits could accelerate into the service and software industries

2011-09-25T11:49:00.000-07:00

An animated discussion about the future of robotics occurred at the September 24, 2011 Boulder Colorado Future Salon. One claim is that the last few decades in robotics might be analogous to the status of the computing industry in the 1950-1970s, growing slowly but surely, and suggesting that the pervasiveness and impact of robotics could start to accelerate. There has been significant progress in agricultural automation and factory automation, and this could spread rapidly to service industries and information technology industries.

On the one hand this is the next logical step in fulfilling the ongoing human dream of using technology to provide more free time. On the other hand, while so far robotics has not had a big negative impact on jobs, a more rapid move to automation in more sectors could result in a more significant displacement of human capital.

Industries of the future
There is a tremendous opportunity to identify the industries of the future and start them. Future industries could be clustered by areas such as sustenance (food, energy, and clean resources), health, productive activity, entertainment, and well-being. One obvious group of future technologies will focus on food, for example, vertical farming and lab-grown meat. Mental well-being and enhancement is virtually untapped, although there is some preliminary activity in applying behavioral change and happiness research, and calming technologies. Some key dynamics that govern human behavior will not be going away in the short-term such as the demand for status-garnering and reputation-building (why gaming has been so successful), so industries providing opportunities for this would be well-pitched.

Newtech: enterprise social networks

2011-09-18T13:46:00.000-07:00

Like email, instant messaging, and wikis, the latest newtech spreading into businesses is social networks, essentially serving as a private internal version of Facebook and Twitter. Enterprise social networks are used for a number of purposes, first and foremost, status updates to work teams, but also for real-time messaging with colleagues including document transfer, broadcast announcements, and opinion capture via polls. There are several companies in the enterprise social software sector (Gartner chart). Among the most vibrant are Yammer and Chatter (affiliated with salesforce) each of which has over 100,000 corporate customers in a wide range of industries from finance to entertainment to professional sports; Jive is a third large company in the space. The standard pricing model appears to be freemium-based, free for light-users and $5/seat/month for power users. Enterprise social networks are typically externally-hosted.

Two of the key challenges that come to mind with enterprise social software are: consolidation with other internal communications platforms and data mining. As with enterprise instant messaging, archival and retrieval is important, both at the personal level (for productivity) and organization level (for information systems backup and compliance). There need to be effective ways to consolidate and mine multi-platform internal communications. Formalizing the explosion of casual interaction as it naturally occurs could be abstracted into value-added tools such as a codification of internal knowledge and expertise in the internal wiki for training purposes. It might also be possible to integrate communication flows unobtrusively and automatically into prediction markets or other sentiment analysis algorithms to capture opinion about key upcoming events like product launches and quarterly sales results.

Human augmentation substrate: the microbiome

2011-09-12T08:27:00.000-07:00

The human microbiome, comprising 10x human cells, is interesting not only for its significant role in determining health, disease, drug response, and individuality, but also in possibly being a less-invasive human augmentation substrate, for example, bringing nanoscale connectivity and memory processing modules onboard via the microbiome.

New research has identified that only five microbial lineages exist on humans: firmicutes, bacteriodetes, actinobacteria, proteobacteria, and other phyla which is surprising compared to the diversity of microbial phyla on Earth. However, within the lineages, there are many strains and species, for example 1,600-2,000 distal gut species of microbial bacteria in each person, only 7% of which were known previously (paper). Gut bacteria is critical to human functioning, one activity is producing butyrate in colon epithelial cells to maintain energy homeostasis. (paper, article)

The microbiome is a complex adaptive system: resilience and vulnerability
Research extends beyond characterization - an investigation of perturbations to the human microbiome has shown resilience in recovery following a disturbance. However there is vulnerability with persistent perturbation. The human microbiome may not reassume its initial state unless the disturbance is at a frequency that the system has experienced before and for some time. In this case, the system may get stuck in an alternative state or local maximum. (paper).

Time, complexity, entropy, and the multiverse

2011-09-04T11:11:00.000-07:00

FQXi, the Foundational Questions Institute, held a multidisciplinary meeting investigating the Nature of Time in Scandinavia August 27 – September 1, 2011 (Figure 1). FQXi promulgates original thinking and research on fundamental questions in physics and cosmology through research grants and essay-writing contests on topics such as “The Nature of Time,” and “Is Reality Digital or Analog?”

Figure 1. Multidisciplinary topics covered at the FQXi Time Conference

Time is familiar in the sense of the three space dimensions and the one time dimension around which human affairs in the physical world are organized. Additionally, each person has a subjective and identifiable relationship to time, even though this may be little more than a convenient construct. In science, time has been developed to the greatest degree in physics and cosmology, and in the philosophy of science. Other fields too are starting to consider time more robustly, including complexity, biology, and computation.

The conference addressed the issue of the arrow of time from many perspectives. While most fundamental laws of nature are time-symmetric, some areas have a time arrow flowing in one direction such as thermodynamics, quantum theory, radiation, and gravity. This can be problematic to explain. A suggested analysis structure involving the trade-offs between complexity and entropy as systems evolve over time served as a useful model for analyzing different aspects of time throughout the meeting.

Inciting Brownian motion at the macro-scale

2011-08-29T08:54:00.000-07:00

Entropy is the process of moving from order to disorder, for example one’s desk becoming cluttered after being cleaned. In many cases, lower entropy states are desirable as they connote greater order. Without doing work to decrease entropy, it generally increases at the macro level (the spacetime of objects that humans encounter on a daily basis). Entropy increases and time appears to move only forward.

At the micro scale of atoms, Brownian motion occurs (the constant jiggling of atoms), and creates an important case where the Second Law of Thermodynamics (heat eventually dissipates; systems move from being warm to cold) does not hold. Brownian motion at the micro scale also allows fluctuations in the arrow of time and in entropy, e.g.; time may flow forwards and backwards, and there may be fluctuations towards lower and higher states of entropy. This can be seen not just at the very-very small Planck scale and the atomic scale of statistical mechanics (for example, atoms jiggling in a gas), but also at the level of cells in the body, and in another example, pollen cells suspended just the right way in water.

That Brownian motion can occur at the comparatively larger scale of cells suggests that it may occur, or be induced to occur at even more macro levels too. For example, in complex adaptive systems, an economy has phases of Brownian motion, when rational agents are jiggling constantly to make the invisible hand of supply and demand meet. Perhaps incentive structures including policy may be used to facilitate the persistence of Brownian motion and devolution of entropy in macro-level systems.

A system is a balance: complex systems design

2011-08-21T18:57:00.000-07:00

The Inconsistency Robustness symposium held at Stanford August 16-18, 2011 featured discussion of a number of challenges that arise in the design of complex systems, and potential solutions to them. The dialogue ranged from computer science details (for example, message passing in concurrent systems) to systemic assessments (for example, ecological concerns and homeostasis). Researcher attendees applied their varied backgrounds to the discussion.

A universal point in complex systems design is the importance of expecting and incorporating inconsistency and potential points of failure into a system. Flexible robust systems may be dynamical and adaptive within boundaries (Figure 1 - "Complex Dynamical") provided there is some mechanism for identifying and monitoring potential out-of-bounds conditions.

Figure 1. Three patterns of behavior in complex dynamical systems (Source)

Scaling citizen health science and ethical review

2011-08-14T18:20:00.000-07:00

Many things are needed to scale citizen science from small cohorts on the order of a few individuals to medium and large-sized cohorts. Building trust in online health communities, motivating sustained engagement from study participants, and lower-cost easier-access blood tests are a few things that are needed.

Legal and ethical issues are also a challenge. Independent ethical review is appropriate but the current IRB (Institutional Review Board) requirement for funding and journal publication is a barrier to crowdsourced study growth. In 23andMe's early studies, there was a definitional debate as to whether their research constituted 'human subjects research,' and whether there was a difference in interacting with subjects in-person versus over the internet.

The U.S. HHS (Health and Human Services) definition of 'humans subjects research' is research that "obtains (1) data through intervention or interaction with the individual, or (2) identifiable private information." (45 CFR 46.102(f)) The strict reading is that any research obtained by 'interacting' with a human subject (e.g.; likely all personalized health collaboration community research) would require an IRB for the funding needed to do it at scale.

Acknowledgement: Thank you to Thomas Pickard for providing background research

Further advance in the integration of organic and inorganic matter

2011-08-07T17:24:00.000-07:00

A fundamental research focus in nanotechnology is the deliberate creation of organic-inorganic hybrids such as rotaxanes that have the properties of both organic and inorganic matter. These nanomaterials can greatly extend the range of control and manipulation that can occur in nanomedicine and other applications.

One interesting recent example is engineered fusion proteins, inorganic-binding peptides conjugated with bioluminescence proteins. The fusion proteins can be used as bioimaging molecular probes both targeting minerals (through fluorescence labeling) and monitoring the rate of biomineralization (through induced reactions). (Yuca et al., Biotechnol Bioeng. 2011 May;108(5):1021-30.)

Figure 1. Integrating organic and inorganic materials: graphene sheet sandwiched in the hydrophobic interior of a phospholipid

Another example (Figure 1) is graphene sheets sandwiched in the hydrophobic interior of a phospholipid. The phospholipid layers of the membrane electrically isolate the embedded graphene from the external solution which means that the composite system could be used in the development of biosensors and bioelectronic materials. (Titov et al., ACS Nano. 2010 Jan 26;4(1):229-34.)

Consciousness only exists as a human construct

2011-07-31T18:13:00.000-07:00

It is quite possible that consciousness may not be an objectively definable phenomenon, but rather a convenient illusion created by humans to provide a context for understanding reality. While machines such as CT scans and MRIs measure human cognition, it may not be possible to measure the direct qualities of consciousness. Philosophers and others have pointed out that consciousness may be a subjective quality arising from the operation of the brain.

One reason that a more detailed look at consciousness may be interesting is in the contemplation of non-human intelligence. Given the aspect of subjective qualia surrounding the label consciousness, it might be insulting to non-human intelligence to be referred to as having consciousness, the more objective attribute ‘self-aware’ being preferable. If human consciousness does not exist, non-human consciousness would be even less likely to exist.

Longevity genomics paper retracted

2011-07-24T14:44:00.000-07:00

On July 22, 2011, a high-profile longevity genomics paper published in Science in July 2010 was retracted. The paper, ‘Genetic Signatures of Exceptional Longevity in Humans,’ was the work of Thomas Perls and Paola Sebastiani (Boston University). The initial study had been revised per editorial concerns that arose last year, but has now been retracted possibly due to issues related to the replicatability the findings.

The revised study results were presented by the team at the American Aging Association meeting in June 2011. These data featured nine single SNP associations (versus two previously), and linked 281 SNPs to signatures for exceptional longevity (versus 180 SNPs previously). The overall conclusion remained unchanged - that

centenarians, while having the same disease mutational profiles as non-centenarians, have other specific aspects to their genetic profiles which indicate a signature for exceptional longevity

Towards an epistemology of citizen science

2011-07-17T12:59:00.000-07:00

Now that citizen science in the health domain is becoming more established, it is relevant to scale it up to tackle larger projects. Several things can be done such as the definition and introduction of liability and oversight models that would be the analogue of the traditional IRB (institutional review board), and the professionalization of participant roles in the study ecosystem such as that of the study manager.

A more subtle issue is to develop an epistemology of citizen science. This would provide a structure and context for exploring the knowledge that is derived from citizen science. One question is whether new kinds of knowledge are being formed through group collaborations such as wikipedia and health social networks. Another question is characterizing the differences (if any) in the types of knowledge generated by traditional medicine, self-experimentation, and health collaboration communities.

Practical applications in anti-aging

2011-07-10T12:40:00.000-07:00

One nice aspect of aging conferences is that there are usually a few gems of information that can be applied immediately in humans. Several actionable solutions were highlighted at the 40th annual meeting of the American Aging Association held June 3-6, 2011 in Raleigh NC USA (conference summary), in the areas of pharmaceuticals, nutrition, lifestyle, exercise, and fasting.

In summary, hypertension drug losartan may help sarcopenia, the healthier fats and antioxidants in walnuts, blueberries, and nectarines may facilitate health, hot tubs may reduce blood pressure, endurance exercise is better for older adults, and protein restriction may be the best form of caloric restriction.

In detail...

In pharmaceuticals, the prescription drug losartan (an angiotensin receptor blocker) is typically used to treat hypertension and high blood pressure. It may also have anti-aging benefits in combating sarcopenia and frailty by improving muscle remodeling and grip strength.

In nutrition, recommendations were for walnuts, blueberries, and nectarines. Walnuts are good because they are the only nut containing a significant amount of alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), and because they are mainly composed of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA, both omega-3 and omega-6) rather than monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), as most other nuts. Blueberries continue to be an important suggestion for anti-aging. They contain anthocyanins, antioxidants which may prevent inflammation and help to improve brain signals and memory function. The 2011 Blueberry Health Study reported that individual cognitive performance improved 1% over a one year period from consuming one half cup to two cups of blueberries per day. Necatrines (and acai) also have antioxidant properties and have been found to reduce oxidative damage and improve longevity in Drosophila melanogaster (Boyd, Free Radic Biol Med, 2011).

A lifestyle anti-aging remedy was found in nonhuman primates. Heated hydrotherapy, e.g.; jacuzzis, two times a week for 30 minutes at 39-41 degrees C, induced heat shock response (which declines with age) and increased production of heat shock proteins 70 and 90 which resulted in reduced blood pressure.

Exercise is always a good anti-aging improvement especially since 60% of U.S. adults over 60 have insufficient physical activity. Type II fibers (fast-twitch) are most vulnerable to aging so instead of trying to improve these, for older adults, it is better and easier to maintain Type I fibers associated with endurance exercise. For example, 70-80 year olds running 2-3 miles a few times a week had the glucoregulation profiles of sedentary adults in their 20s.

Fasting, especially amino acid (e.g.; protein) deprivation, before chemotherapy and surgery was found to help in reducing injurious impact.

World supercomputing capability more than triples

2011-07-03T12:08:00.000-07:00

In a breath of good news for Japan this year, RIKEN's supercomputer "K Computer" vaulted to the top slot in world supercomputing in June 2011 as tracked by Top 500 Supercomputer Sites.

Remarkably, capability more than tripled to over 8 petaflops per second (8 quadrillion calculations per second, measured as the Maximal LINPACK performance achieved), after supercomputer performance had been asymptoting at close to 1 pf and 2 pfs for the last three years (Figure 1). China's Tianhe-1A at the National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin was in second place, and the US's Jaguar Cray at Oak Ridge National Lab in third.

The capacity tripling constitutes obvious potential benefits to scientific computing, the realm of applications for which supercomputers are used. It is hoped that these kinds of quantitative changes may eventually lead to qualitative changes in the way other problems are investigated, for example how the brain works.

Figure 1. Source: Top 500 Supercomputer Sites

Synbio revolution: biology is the engineering medium

2011-06-26T17:44:00.000-07:00

Synthetic Biology 5.0: The Fifth International Meeting on Synthetic Biology, was held at Stanford University June 15-17, 2011. There were 700 registered attendees, 400 posters, and 100 people at peak on the live ustream video broadcast. Synthetic biology (synbio) is the design and construction of new biological entities such as enzymes, genetic circuits, and cells or the redesign of existing biological systems. Engineering principles are applied to harness the fundamental components of biology; biology is an engineering medium.

The status of the synbio field was discussed, how

it is possible to synthesize an enzyme but not design a protein
it is possible to synthesize a chromosome but not predictably engineer a circuit
it is not known how to engineer on a whole genome basis
it is not known how to interface with inorganic material (e.g.; man-made substances)

One of the biggest areas of current activity in synbio is metabolic engineering, optimizing genetic and regulatory processes within cells to increase the cells' production of certain substances, for example biofuel generation. Techniques range from directly deleting and/or overexpressing the genes that encode for metabolic enzymes to targeting the regulatory networks in a cell to efficiently engineer the metabolism.

Theme #1: Biology is finite
The overarching theme that emerged from the conference is that

biology is detailed, systemic, dynamic, and complicated, but in the end finite

The question then becomes ‘how long will it take’ to do certain things. Synthetic biologists have buckled in for the long-term, focusing on the biology revolution being to this century what the computer revolution was to the past century. To be more precise (and congruent with engineering), it may not be that all biology is in the end finitely discoverable and explainable, but rather that even in systems ecologies, manipulations can be conducted effectively within bands wide enough to reach goals and limit risk. An example of a classic problem illustrating the trade-offs of synbio is whether it would be better to engineer wheat that impedes rust or a virus that eats the rust on the wheat.

Theme #2: 3 main approaches to synbio: extend E. coli capacity, biomimicry, de novo synthesis
A recurring theme at synbio conferences is the diversity of approaches. There are three main types, first is extending engineering capacity in the building blocks of nature that are already synbio workhorses such as E. coli and yeast. Second is canvassing nature for additional functionality, including cataloging the natural world and the entire human metabalome, peptidome, virome, bloodome, etc. Third is de novo engineering from scratch to build necessary functionality in minimal cells/minimal genomes, including the possibility of supplementing nature-provided parts with newly created amino acids and nucleotide base pairs. An example that considers the trade-offs between approaches is engineering up from minimal cells versus engineering down from organisms that already have some of the needed functionality, for example up from E. coli or down from rhizobia, soil bacteria that have nitrogen fixation (biosynthesis) capability.

Grand challenges
There was an attempt to define some of the grand challenges in synbio, which can be categorized as building block, biology characterization, and systems engineering challenges.

Building block challenge

Synthesize the full genome of a bacterium
Design and manufacture a minimal cell
Design bacteria that hunt and kill tumors
Enhance the photosynthesis process in plants
Expand model organism culturing capability from E. coli and yeast to the vast number of microbes

Biology characterization challenges

Understand the key interactions of band gap material in a cell
Understand the multigenic epistasis of thousands of genes in heterologous systems
Understand contact from a cellular basis
Figure out how to create programmatic control of complex development steps (for example, body plan)
Define how many changes are necessary to create a new species

Systems engineering challenges

Define designs and specifications (that can be predictably and reliably verified and constructed)
Improve challenges in the synthesis, design, analysis of existing systems
Engineer for the open systems of the real world, beyond closed-environment bioreactors
Improve tools for computer-based circuit, genome, and chromosome design
Develop theoretical frameworks to scale synbio to bigger questions; envision the future beyond putting a lot of small pieces of DNA together more quickly and cheaply
Develop effective means to design, generate, and test recombinant organisms in the environment (for example, injestable bacteria in humans like an organism that cures cancer or probiotic bacteria for Crohn’s disease)

Conference report: interventional anti-aging

2011-06-19T12:04:00.000-07:00

The focus of the 40th annual meeting of the American Aging Association held June 3-6, 2011 in Raleigh NC USA was emerging concepts in the mechanisms of aging.

Many usual topics in aging were covered such as dietary restriction (DR), inflammation, stress resistance, homeostasis and proteasome activity, sarcopenia, and neural degeneration.

Newer methods like microRNAs and genome sequencing were employed to investigate gene expression variance with aging and genetic signatures of longevity.

Aging as a field continues to mature including by using a systems approach to tracing conserved pathways across organisms, sharpening definitions of sarcopenia, frailty, and healthspan, and distinguishing interventions by age-tier (early-onset versus late-onset).

A pre-conference session on late-onset intervention concluded that there are numerous benefits to deriving such interventions.

Conference talks applied the biology of aging in a translational manner to intervention development.

Using an individual’s own stem cells to regenerate organs for transplantation and as a cell source for cellular therapies could be a powerful near-term solution to disease.
Several proposed interventions were pharmaceutical, myostatin inhibition, losartan, JAK pathway inhibitors, and enalapril for frailty and sarcopenia, and metformin to promote Nrf2 anti-inflammation response.
In dietary restriction, protein restriction was found to be better than general calorie restriction. Short-term fasting may be helpful in chemotherapy, surgery, and acute stress, simultaneously increasing the killing of cancer cells by chemotherapy, while improving the survival of normal cells.
Immune system interventions remain elusive, although statins may help to improve cellular-senescence promoted bacterial infection.
Engineered enzymes may be useful in lysosomal catabolism.
Dietary restriction mimetics, most promisingly involving TOR (TORC1 inhibition and rapamycin), may be more feasible than dietary restriction.

More details: Meeting Summary preprint.

Engaging personal health collaborators

2011-06-12T22:46:00.000-07:00

Health social networks have been growing steadily over the last few years – the leader PatientsLikeMe now has 100,000 patients and 500 conditions listed. Numerous other personal health collaboration communities exist.

The health social network segment is now getting mature enough to expand its focus from deep, specific interest communities, often around disease, to also thinking about going mainstream to attract hundreds of thousands, and eventually millions of people to explore a wide variety of physical and mental performance areas.

At the first Quantified Self conference held in Mountain View CA May 28-29, 2011, an important area of discussion was regarding the best ways to build and engage community participation, whatever the topic. Here are some ways that large numbers of individuals might be enticed to come together for self-directed health exploration:

Crowd-sourcing each piece of the value chain: the data, the questions, the financing, and the analysis
Technology-mediated tools to make participation easy and automated
Fun: making participation fun by using the contemporary ubiquity of gaming principles in persuasive behavior and group activity design
Market-tools: using market design principles such as scarcity, value exchange, and currency (e.g.; reputational, points, monetary, etc.) amassing for community stickiness
Enhancement-focus: offering many topical and aspirational frames (e.g.; performance enhancement) since not everyone is interested in “health” or “wellness”
Low-friction interactions funneled into tiers of increasingly committed participation: making it very easy for potential participants to like, join, interact, and commit to health communities

Just as people have hobbies, exercise, and entertainment activities of preference, so too may they have health collaboration focus areas in the future.

Time malleability

2011-06-05T11:43:00.000-07:00

There are differences between the conceptualization of time in computing systems and the human conceptualization of time. At the most basic level in computing, time is synonymous with performance and speed. At the next level in computing, there are “more kinds of time” than in the human and physics perspective where time is primarily continuous. In computing, time may be discrete, synchronous and asynchronous, absolute and relative, and not elapsing at all.

Concurrency trend in contemporary computing
Computing is now making time even more malleable as a side effect of the quest to develop concurrent systems (multi-cores and multi-processors, and cluster, grid, and cloud computing), in at least four ways. One technique is using functional languages such as Haskell, LISP, Scheme, Clojure, and F# where sets of items and processes may not need to be temporally ordered. A second method is enhancing existing computer languages with new commands like ‘happensbefore’ and concurrency control mechanisms like ‘lock free queues’ to manage multiple threads of code operating simultaneously. A third means is creating new models with less time dependency like MapReduce which automatically parallelizes large data problems into finding all possible answers (‘map’), and determining relevancy (‘reduce’). A fourth technique is extending alternative models such as clock free methods and asynchronous computing and restructuring problems to be distributed for more expedient resolution.

Building intelligent systems
The building of intelligent systems is a special problem in computing. There are many approaches ranging from attempts to model human thinking, including the conceptualization of time, to attempts to building intelligent systems from scratch. All models might benefit from incorporating biological time models such as temporal synchrony, the notion of a high-level background synchronization of processes.

Conclusion
Computers are already great time-savers. Computing approaches to contemporary problems like concurrency and building intelligent systems are increasing the ability to manipulate time. Ultimately, humans may be able to greatly extend the control of time, for all intents and purposes creating more time.

From “The conceptualization of time in computing”

Advances in cytosolic drug delivery

2011-05-29T19:46:00.001-07:00

Nanoparticles (particles smaller than 100 nm where materials display different properties than at the bulk state) are frequently used in nanomedicine for drug delivery and other purposes. The sophistication and specificity of nanoparticle use is growing, particularly for delivering drugs past the lipid bilayer barrier of the cell wall to the inside of cells (cytosolic drug delivery) where they can target biophysical processes more easily. Two advances focus on cytosolic drug delivery, using light and peptides to break the endosomes (carrying vehicles) to release drugs directly into the cytosol.

1) Light-mediated endosomal breakage
One advance is in the development of nanoparticles (size-tunable (30-200 nm) highly monodispersed mesoporous silica nanoparticles) that can be loaded with a variety of compounds and released into the cytosol via light-mediated endosomal breakage, as illustrated in Figure 1 (Febvay et al, Nano Lett, 2010).

Figure 1: Nanoparticle cargo discharge through light-activation.

2) GALA peptide endosomal breakage
A second advance is in cytosolic drug delivery with nanoparticles using a peptide, GALA, to encourage endosomal breakage. GALA (comprised of repeating sequences of Glu-Ala-Leu-Ala) mimics the function of viral fusion protein sequences that mediate escape of virus genes from endosomes (Nakase et al, Methods Mol Biol, 2011).

Anti-aging research developments in rapamycin, sirtuins, and stem cells

2011-05-22T14:07:00.000-07:00

The Third Bay Area Aging meeting was held at Berkeley on May 8, 2010.

One highlight was the emperor’s new clothes statement “Maybe C. Elegans (e.g.; worm) is not the correct model organism for human aging!”

A variety of research was presented, with four themes amongst the most interesting:

1. Role of rapamycin in preventing inflammation
Rapamycin (more technically known as the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR)), has long been examined in aging since it is a protein that regulates a range of cellular behavior including growth, proliferation, motility, and survival. Initially hoped to be useful in treating cancer, rapamycin later turned out not to kill tumors due to systems biology; when mTOR is given and the TOR pathway is knocked out, the ERK pathway is upregulated instead.

However new research presented by Remi-Martin Laberge (Buck) shows that there is hope for rapamycin in the context of inflammation prevention. The normal process is that DNA damage response leads to NF-kB (a protein controlling DNA transcription) activation which leads to IL-6/8 (inflammation-related proteins) buildup, but with an mTOR introduction of rapamycin, instead IL-1a (an immune-response regulator) is obtained which prevents inflammation.

The prevention of inflammation is thought to be critical in anti-aging as many aging pathologies start with inflammation which later escalates to waste-build up and tissue break-down. This work is part of ongoing SASP (senescence-associated secretory phenotype) research by the Campisi lab (recent papers on p53 and p38MAPK).

2. Role of recently discovered SIRT7 in oncogenesis
Matt Barber (Stanford) presented work regarding a recently discovered SIRT (Silent Information Regulator) protein. SIRT7 is a chromatin-associated protein and site-specific histone H3 K18 deacetylase. There is a potential connection with SIRT7 and oncogenesis in that SIRT7 interacts with ELK4 (a pathway upregulated in cancer) to suppress a tumor suppressive gene expression network and helps stabilize aggressive cancer phenotypes.

3. Enhanced stem cell therapies
Randy Ashton (Berkeley) showed research regarding the increased ability to dopaminergiacally pattern hESCs to facilitate regenerative therapies for Parkinson’s disease. This was accomplished by making a protein important in neural development, sonic hedgehog, more sensitive through polyvalency.

4. Protein homeostasis and proteasome activity necessary for long lifespan
Brett Robison (Buck) presented work suggesting that normal proteasome function is required for full lifespan in yeast. The proteasome is an important location for waste degradation in cells. Aging cells showed impaired protein homeostasis and decreased proteasome function but it is unclear if this is cause or effect. Theodore Peters (Buck) also showed that maintaining protein homeostasis is important for healthy aging.

Genomic polymorphisms trigger phantom limb pain and synesthesia

2011-05-15T19:30:00.000-07:00

Well-known cognitive neuroscientist V.S. Ramachandran (“Phantoms in the Brain”) has been extending his original phantom limb pain research into new realms over the last several years, facilitated by the advent of new tools such as fMRI and genomic analysis.

It turns out that phantom limb pain is related to other anomalies such as synesthesia, a ‘mis-wiring’ of the senses such that stimulation to one sense results in an experience in another (for example, someone may see Monday as red). In all of these cases, there is an overabundance of neural connections in the brain. Genomic polymorphisms prevent these connections from being pruned normally.

Synesthesia is 7-8 times more common in artists, which begs the question of creativity measurement. A synesthete’s depiction of the world he or she sees may look like creativity to non-synesthetes, but is it reporting or creativity from the synesthete’s viewpoint? Synesthetes of the same type would need to assess creativity.

App fever at Mobile Health 2011

2011-05-08T14:14:00.000-07:00

This year’s attendance was double last year’s at the Mobile Health conference, held at Stanford University May 4-5, 2011. The main theme last year was monetizing mobile health apps, without any real ideas of how to do so. This year the main theme was app fever – everyone either having or thinking that they need to have an app. No one seemed to be immune - large and small health service providers, physician groups, insurers, and entrepreneurs alike are scrambling to launch apps.

Rather than having each organization struggle through multi-platform app development,

what is needed is the GeoCities of mobile apps,

a plug and play platform where app creators can select different widgets for app customization. The most obvious mobile health app widgets would be for appointment scheduling, prescription management, lab test results, physician interaction, and EMRs.

Since app fever reaches far beyond the health sector, GeoCities/Dreamweaver-level platforms, much more accessible to the layperson than Google App Inventor and unified mobile code base tools, could cause even greater activity in the already booming mobile sector.

How small is small? the pico, femto, atto world

2011-05-01T12:53:00.000-07:00

Man continues to master the manipulation of matter and timescales further up and down the chain from observable quotidian life. Regarding time, ultrafast materials is the area of science that deals with phenomena occurring in picoseconds and faster.

The familiar time scale is one second, easily measurable with a stop watch. A picsecond is 10^-12 of a second or 0.000000000001 seconds, a timescale used in high speed electronics. A femtosecond is 10^-15 of a second, the timescale of molecular vibrations and carrier interactions in solids. An attosecond is 10^-18 of a second, the timescale of electron motion at atomic levels.

Scientists are now finding in nature that most energy transfer and charge transfer transactions are typically taking place at the vibrational range, at the femtosecond timescale. A prominent example is the rhodopsin photoreceptor for vision. Traditional models for describing these dynamics, e.g.; Bloch’s single-electron band structure model, work for condensed matter but not for regular matter.

New models are needed to understand the interplay between atomic structure and electronic structure. Atomic structural dynamics deal with ultrafast chemical reactions,
ultrafast phase transitions, and ultrafast biological processes. Electronic structural dynamics deal with bond dynamics, valence charge flow, charge transfer, and electronic phase transitions.

One new tool being applied is the femtosecond X-ray. Since femtosecond X-rays interact with atomic cores, they are useful for obtaining direct information about atomic positions as compared with traditional optical measurements which only provide indirect information. This has immediately transferable implications in electronics manufacturing and biological applications.

Moving beyond the femtosecond scale, a next-generation light source at the attosecond time scale is being planned for the 2020 timeframe at Lawrence Berkeley Lab.

Rating ubiquity

2011-04-24T18:04:00.000-07:00

Ratings have long been used in product and service reviews (Amazon, Yelp, etc.), and are now being extended to other areas such as real-time customer service (Tello). There are many other areas where ratings could be helpful.

For example, it would be useful to have an event rating system, the usual simple quantitative stars (1-5 or 1-10 rating) plus rich tag (both adjective + noun) descriptors for meetups, conferences, lectures, etc. Yelp’s ‘Review Highlights’ is a nice start at trying to summarize salient qualitative descriptors.

Rating systems could proliferate to other contexts too, with tag clouds being ascribed to individuals and organizations. This could be a step in filling in the missing pieces of job-seeking or online dating; helping to get an idea of what is it actually like to spend time with a person or organization.

Sage Commons Congress drives participatory medicine

2011-04-17T12:17:00.000-07:00

The second Sage Commons Congress was held in San Francisco CA April 15-16, 2011. Conceptually an ‘open science,’ ‘data 2.0,’ ‘health 2.0,’ and ‘medicine 2.0’ event, the main purpose was for a variety of working groups to collaborate and outline goals for future work. The open science focal points for the group were data (aggregation, packaging, access, and usability) and public engagement. Of particular note was the launch of a new journal, Open Network Biology, which aims to facilitate experiment reproducibility through improved access to underlying data. The event is summarized here, and conference videos and presentations are available here.

The congress was an example of the growing activity in alternatives to the traditional conduct of health research and medicine, and important as an ongoing collaborative effort between many open health science initiatives. Alternative efforts could become a key partner in traditional health care delivery, particularly in realizing preventive medicine through measurement and intervention while conditions are still pre-clinical. Boutique physicians, health social networks, quantified self health tracking, patient-controlled health records, and patient-organized clinical trials could be important features in the near-term health landscape.

Personal principles of societal organization

2011-04-10T17:39:00.000-07:00

In War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empire (2005), author Peter Turchin proposes a theory of history, that the rise and fall of empire can be explained by a society’s capacity for cooperation. Social capital as a prerequisite for society is further explored in other books.

The interesting point is what basis a society may have for generating social capital and cooperation. Historically, Turchin argues, societies self-defined and self-unified along meta-ethnic frontiers. In an enlightened society, presumably the definition of self/other based on ethnicity and geography recedes over time in favor of ideology. The new ideologies could be much more personal and granular than the wide-reaching religions, economic systems, and political doctrines unifying disparate peoples today.

A shift to group-identification by personal principles could be liberating at the individual level but potentially destabilizing at the societal level. One issue is optimal societal size: defense and administration suggest larger societies, but personal ideologies suggest smaller groups. Another issue is greater implicit dynamism: there are fewer natural barriers to entering and leaving groups, and at-will association would seem to be the norm. A third issue is potential conflicts between multiple associations, as a system inspired by Snow Crash franchulates with nation-states articulating value propositions to potential customers could develop.

At-will society: airsteading with the extropians over Williamsburg Brooklyn today and the immortalists in zero-G tomorrow

Reliable access to an objective reality

2011-04-03T15:46:00.000-07:00

Already people obtain their ‘news’ from a variety of sources, a mix of traditional media and new media, especially tweetstreams and blogs (for example from NPR’s Andy Carvin (“The Revolution will be Tweeted”)). This suggests that more different versions of reality are being created and perceived.

The issue of ‘what is objective reality’ and reliable access to it could become more important over time. Reality-confirmation tools could likely proliferate. One example is the contemplated arrival of thousands of privately-owed microcams descending to film any situation of interest and posting opensource footage or auctioning it to bidders (proposed by David Brin in Kiln People). Like blogs and phonecams, private microcams could further counter the influence and propagandizing of media, and provide a more reliable confirmation of reality.

In the longer term, individuals may have a more explicit ability to manage the realities they access. Different realities could be shared at different times per volition and convenience (an extension of Nancy Kress’s shared reality concept in the Probability Trilogy).

Human language ambiguity and AI development

2011-03-27T22:09:00.000-07:00

Since Jeopardy questions are not fashioned in SQL, and are in fact designed to obfuscate rather than elucidate, IBM’s Watson program used a number of indirect DeepQA processes to beat human competitors in January 2011 (Figure 1). A good deal of the program’s success may be attributable to algorithms that handle language ambiguity, for example, ranking potential answers by grouping their features to produce evidence profiles. Some of the twenty or more features analyzed include data type (e.g.; place, name, etc.), support in text passages, popularity, and source reliability.

Figure 1: IBM's supercomputer Watson wins Jeopardy!

Image credit: New Scientist

Since managing ambiguity is critical to successful natural language processing, it might be easier to develop AI in some human languages as opposed to others. Some languages are more precise. Languages without verb conjugation and temporal indication are more ambiguous and depend more on inferring meaning from context. While it might be easier to develop a Turing-test passing AI in these languages, it might not be as useful for general purpose problem solving since context inference would be challenging to incorporate. Perhaps it would be most expedient to develop AI in some of the most precise languages first, German or French, for example, instead of English.

Information broadcast with group messaging

2011-03-20T12:31:00.000-07:00

Group messaging services allow groups to communicate in real time, through mobile apps or on the web. Multiple parties can interact, receive updates simultaneously, and possibly see the location of others and transmit their own.

Some of the big names in the space are beluga (acquired by Facebook in Nov 2010), convore, textPlus / GOGII ($15 million financing raised in February 2011), and groupme.

Group messaging is like many examples of NewTech - it was initially created to solve a problem, but through use, novel functionality becomes more obvious and new classes of applications are developed. In fact, it is starting to look like group messaging is not about communication, but rather multi-channel information broadcast.

One new class of functionality that is enabled is large-scale operations. Going beyond work groups and activity coordinating with friends, there is no reason that groups could not be arbitrarily large. An obvious recent use case is crisis management. Group messaging could be used for crisis alerts (for example, to issue the 80-second advance warning in the Japanese earthquake), and search and rescue. Another large-scale application is voting, or any kind of opinion-measurement. Presumably, group messaging could be a better version of the current real-time pulse of the web, Twitter. Twitter is operating at scale, recently reporting 36 million tweets during the 2011 Oscars, and more during the Grammys and Superbowl, but could benefit from the additional aggregation, stratification, and interaction functionality of group messaging.

Mitochondrial motility tied to neurodegenerative disease

2011-03-13T23:47:00.000-07:00

New research suggests some details of how damaged mitochondria may be responsible for Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and aging.

Mitochondria are the energy powerhouse of the cell. They are managed and distributed via a mitochondrial transport complex involving proteins Miro and Milton which have KHC (kinesin heavy chain), EF hands, and GTPase domains. A pathway related to the functioning of the complex regulates mitochondrial motility through calcium concentration: the higher the level of cytosolic calcium, the lower the mitochondrial motility. Motility is reversibly altered as necessary to meet the energy requirements of any cell, including neurons.

Part of this same mechanism may be used by Parkinson’s genes Pink1 and Parkin to bind to the mitochondrial transport complex to permanently inhibit mitochondrial motility, thus blocking dopaminergic neurons.

Passive cognizance: outsourcing thinking to computers

2011-03-06T21:43:00.000-08:00

Product manufacturing went offshore from the US and Europe to China. Infotech services were outsourced to India. What is next in this flat world? [Even more] thinking could be outsourced to computers. Memory already has been…spelling, navigation, and fact recall, for example. Several forms of thinking have been already been outsourced to computers too, fraud detection and geological data review in oil exploration are the canonical examples. Passive cognizance could be the futurepath of humans; even more on autopilot than at present, behavior facilitated by personal digital assistants like SIRI based on continuous incoming lifecam and biomonitor data and utility function reassessment.

Reality: analog, digital, or information compression continuum?

2011-02-27T05:21:00.001-08:00

The Foundational Questions Institute (FQXi) has a thought-provoking new essay challenge for seasoned physicists, cosmologists, and lay-persons to answer: “Is Reality is Digital or Analog?”

In one sense, analog and digital is not an either/or question but two points on a continuum. Analog and digital are different information compression algorithms, using frequency and amplitude as levers for modulating information onto electromagnetic spectrum. As analog has progressed to digital, so too could there be several subsequent phases of information compression algorithms that are denser than digital.

Along the electromagnetic spectrum (Figure 1), analog communication uses radio waves, analog and digital satellite communication uses microwave frequencies, and digital communication uses fiber optics in the visible spectrum. Next-gen terahertz communications systems are already under development.

Figure 1. Electromagnetic spectrum

Quantum computing modulates atoms with information. Eventually, maybe all atomic and energy quanta could be modulated with information (smart matter). In the farther future, modulating information onto the other three forces (strong, weak, and gravitational) could be explored, along with the modulation of dark energy and dark matter. Gadget of the future: dark energy multiplexer.

Figure 2. Harnessing gravity waves through muons despite their 1.56 microsecond half-lives?

Transcranial magnetic stimulation

2011-02-20T08:49:00.000-08:00

An emerging technique for working with the brain is transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). In TMS, an electromagnetic coil is placed on the scalp and delivers short painless bursts of energy to stimulate nerve cells in the brain.

TMS has been suggested as clinical tool for the neurorehabilitation of many conditions including depression, hallucination, pain, tinnitus, Parkinson’s disease, and stroke, and possibly for neural enhancement in improving focus and concentration. NeuroStar, a TMS device used in the treatment of depression, was cleared by the FDA in 2008.

The non-invasive nature of TMS also makes it useful as a research tool. Some recent research using TMS has improved knowledge of motor control and perception:

adaptive motor learning in humans is related to cerebellar excitability and depression; motor learning could possibly be enhanced by noninvasive brain stimulation (paper)
the right parietal and frontal eye fields play a key functional role in the spatial updating of objects in trans-saccadic perception (TSP), the process of constructing an internal representation of the world from successive saccadic eye movements (paper)

New class of drugs: stapled peptides

2011-02-13T06:26:00.000-08:00

Stapled peptides refers to a computational drug design technique that may create a whole new class of drugs by being able to more effectively target substances within cells and increase the number of proteins which can be targeted. Stapled peptides are generated through the synthetic enhancement of a 3-D alpha-helix protein segment with hydrocarbon bonds to make proteins more rigid and able to penetrate cell walls. The more rigid structure also gives stapled peptides longer lives through greater protease degradation resistance.

The two current classes of drugs, small molecules and biologics, are limited in that they can only target 20% of all proteins. Stapled peptides could allow a wider range of proteins to be used in drug-targeting. They are currently in clinical trials for the inhibition of a BCL-2 family protein, oncogene MCL-1, using an exclusive inhibitor, the MCL-1 BH3 helix, which could unblock caspase-dependent apoptosis in cancer cells (paper).

Synbio update: reference standards, protein fusions, and bioscaffolds

2011-02-06T10:42:00.000-08:00

One of the core tools developed and used by synthetic biologists is the Registry of Standard Biological Parts which has over 5,000 available parts (paper). A contemporary research focus is on improving methods for working with the standardized parts. Three recent innovations are described below.

1. In vivo reference standards
One advance is in establishing in vivo reference standards for the different biological parts. For example, the absolute activity of different promoters (gene transcription regulators) varies across experimental conditions and measurement instruments. Variation in promoter activity was reduced 50% by using a selected promoter as an in vivo reference standard against which other promoters were measured (paper).

2. Construction of protein fusions
Another advance is in allowing the construction of protein fusions. This is not feasible in the current assembly standard due to an unfavorable scar sequence that encodes an in-frame stop codon. Restriction enzymes BglII and BamHI are employed in a new assembly standard that replaces the scar sequence with a generally innocuous glycine-serine peptide linker (paper).

3. Rapid circuit generation with BioScaffolds
A third advance is in the creation of a new part, a BioScaffold, that can be used in the rapid generation of synthetic biological circuits. The BioScaffold can be inserted into cloning vectors and excised from them to leave a gap into which other DNA elements can be placed. Targeted circuit modification simplifies and speeds up the iterative design-build-test process through the direct reuse of existing circuits (paper).

Regenerative medicine: conduits, augments, and blood-vessel printing

2011-01-30T16:29:00.000-08:00

A medical advance that could have as large an impact on disease eradication and life extension as penicillin is regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. The field was perceived as revolutionary even a few years ago, but rapid advances have made it seem almost commonplace today.

Replacement organs grown from one’s own cells are desirable since this would avoid immune system rejection and a lifetime of immunosuppressive drugs and their side effects.

Hollow organs like the bladder are easier to create than the more solid liver and kidney, and the heart is the most challenging. The current status is that several dozens of lab-generated bladders have been implanted in humans.

In the case of other organs, the present focus of tissue engineering is on conduits (e.g.; providing a link to the outside of the body for waste removal (Tengion neo-urinary conduit clinical trials)) and augments (e.g.; providing a supplemental path for normal operations (Tengion neo-kidney augment and other augments)).

Vascularization, or blood-vessel printing, is an intense area of research focus, and there is some promising progress from at least two sources, well-known regenerative medicine research leader Anthony Atala, and tissue engineering startup darling Organovo. This could be a key step in allowing more sophisticated organs to be regenerated.

Cognitive and social enhancement tools

2011-01-23T20:05:00.000-08:00

Computer software and the internet have long been cognitive enhancement tools. Spellchecker obviated the need for spelling skills. Wikipedia and the internet obviated the need for fact memorization. There is less reason to earn a PhD if the module might be available as a cognitive plug-in within a few years.

The need to speak foreign languages is reduced with Google Translate for Android.

Social networks like Facebook are acting as a social prosthetic. It is now possible to have a massively larger context-driven social apparatus with deep-interest specificity.

Accessing, assimilating, applying, and interacting around knowledge and information has become the critical 21c skill set.

Android mobile app for 23andMe data

2011-01-16T14:55:00.000-08:00

DIYgenomics released a personal genome Android app update on January 9, 2011 adding three new elements of functionality: the ability to upload and store 23andMe data in the app, multiple views for health risk, drug response, and athletic performance (Figure 1), and a quality ranking system for each SNP.

Figure 1: DIYgenomics Android mobile app view categories.

What is this information?
Selecting any item displays a list of variants or SNPs (places of potential genetic typos), such as for Alzheimer's disease (Figure 2). The locus, gene and variant (SNP) details are shown, along with the normal type (e.g.; no mutation) for 23andMe data (if it exists) in black, an individual's 23andMe data (if loaded) with normal alleles in green and mutations (polymorphisms) in red. Stars (from 1-5) indicate the research quality of the SNP (per the journal ranking of the study, the number of cases and controls, etc.). The colored blocks show which service providers cite the SNP (per color legend), and how many studies they cite.

Figure 2: DIYgenomics health condition Alzheimer's disease.

What does this information mean?
In Health Conditions, a mutation (polymorphism) presented in red generally indicated being at higher potential risk for developing a condition. In Drug Response, a mutation could mean that the normal dose of the drug may not work as well, that there could be side effects, or that there could be a higher change of addiction (for substances). In Athletic Performance, the favorable mutation (green), suggests greater than average athletic capability.

Citizen science genomics

2011-01-09T14:49:00.000-08:00

A group of interested citizen scientists came together to explore how they could make their 23andMe personal genomic data actionable. A small (n=7) non-statistically significant pilot study was conducted looking at polymorphisms (e.g.; typos) in SNPs in the MTHFR gene and their connection to Vitamin B deficiency and high (undesirable) homocysteine levels. Four out of seven participants, though healthy, had high baseline homocysteine levels. For five of the study participants, a regular drugstore multivitamin worked best for reducing homocysteine levels. Overall, homocysteine levels were reduced 19%, commensurate with 23% reductions achieved in traditional clinical trials.

This is an important example for two reasons: the preventive medicine model and the crowdsourced research model.

This study illustrates one approach to the challenge of preventive medicine. Prospective tracking of genomic data + phenotypic data + interventions could help to establish baseline measures of wellness in large populations, shift health management responsibility to individuals, and potentially prevent or delay the clinical onset of conditions.
This study shows the value of crowdsourcing citizen scientists for research studies as they increasingly have access to their health information, may be willing to contribute their data to various studies, and have the interest and motivation to investigate conditions of personal relevance.

Paper: Citizen Science Genomics as a Model for Crowdsourced Preventive Medicine Research, December 23, 2010

Top 10 technology trends for 2011

2011-01-02T07:20:00.000-08:00

1. Mobile is the platform; mobile payment ubiquity could be next
2. Device proliferation continues; tablets, e-book readers, etc.
3. Connected media and on-demand streaming video, IPTV, live event interaction
4. Social shopping: grouppurchasing, commenting, recommendation, LBS
5. Sentiment engines (ex: Pulse of the Nation, We Feel Fine) are ripe for being applied much more broadly to other keyword domains; sentiment prediction
6. Big data era explosion: machine learning, cloud computing, clusters, supercomputing
7. Labor-as-a-service: microlabor, on-demand labor, global task fulfillment
8. Quantified self tracking gadgets and apps (ex: WiThings scale, myZeo, BodyMetRx, medication reminder, nutrition intake, workout coordination, DIYgenomics, etc.)
9. Personal manufacturing, digital fabrication, 3D printing ("atoms are the new bits"); slow but important niche growth
10. Real-time economics: blippy, crowdsourced forecasting, stock market prediction

(Review predictions for 2010)

Human morphology-changing technologies

2010-12-26T08:20:00.001-08:00

To date, most technology has been human-created. It can be grouped into two categories, technologies that are not likely to have an immediate direct impact on human morphology, and those that might.

Technologies that would likely not change human morphology
There could be the rapid advent of significantly more dramatic technologies than have been experienced to date. While these new technologies could change some aspects of life, human biological drives could remain unchanged, and therefore the structure and dynamics of human societal organization, interaction, and goal pursuit could also remain unchanged. Some examples of these advances could include the realization of molecular nanotechnology, quantum computing, cold fusion, and immortality. Even with several of these revolutionary technologies implemented, the seemingly different world would not actually be structurally different if humanity is still ordered around the same familiar biologically-driven goals.

Technologies that might change human morphology
The other group of technologies is those which could possibly have a near-term impact on the structure and form of what it means to be human, for example, cognitive augmentation, genomic therapies, and synthetic biology. The area with the greatest possible change is improving human mental capability. There have been several significant advances in a variety of neurology-related fields in the last few years that if ultimately realized, could potentially alter human morphology. Even the resolution of all mental pathologies such as Parkinson’s disease, depression, stroke rehabilitation, and addiction would constitute morphological change at a basic level. Augmenting cognition and deliberately managing biophysical states would constitute morphological change at other levels.

Morphological reach of technology

2010-12-19T09:50:00.000-08:00

Is technology simply the tools that humanity has created to further its will or a force that can change humanity? Whether arrowheads or supercomputers, humans have made technology to enable and reinforce human nature and evolutionary tendencies. However, it is possible that advanced technology could actually change humans, human nature, and biological drives, both unintentionally and by design.

Supercomputers surpass 2.5 petaflops

2010-12-12T13:52:00.000-08:00

The biannual list of the world's fastest supercomputers was released on November 13, 2010. For the first time, supercomputing capability surpassed 2.5 petaflops with the world's fastest supercomputer, the Tianhe-1A - NUDT TH MPP, X5670 2.93Ghz 6C, NVIDIA GPU, FT-1000 8C NUDT, at the National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin China, clocking in at over 2.5 petaflops.

Figure 1 illustrates how supercomputing power has been growing in the last five years, starting at (a paltry) 136.8 gigaflops in June 2005, and experiencing four solid doublings in growth. This rate of progress is estimated to continue, and usher in the exaflop era of supercomputing by mid-decade. The IBM Roadrunner at Los Alamos was the first to achieve speeds over one petaflop in June 2008 and held onto the fastest computer seat for three measurement periods, then was surpassed by the Cray Jaguar at Oakridge for two measurement periods. China has now captured the fastest supercomputer ranking with its NUDT MPP.

Figure 1. Growth in Supercomputing Capability: Jun 2005 - Nov 2010

Source: Top 500 Supercomputing Sites List Releases

The world's supercomputers are working on many challenging problems in areas such as physics, energy, and climate modeling. A natural question arises as to how soon human neural simulation may be conducted with supercomputers. It is a challenging problem since neural activity has a different architecture than supercomputing activity. Signal transmission is different in biological systems, with a variety of parameters such as context and continuum determining the quality and quantity of signals. Distributed computing systems might be better geared to processing problems in a fashion similar to that of the brain. The largest current project in distributed computing, Stanford protein Folding@home, reached 5 petaflops in computing capacity in early 2009, just as supercomputers were reaching 1 petaflop. The network continues to focus on modeling protein folding but could eventually be extended to other problem spaces.

Bay area aging meeting summary

2010-12-05T13:05:00.000-08:00

In the second Bay Area Aging Meeting, held at Stanford on December 4, 2010, research was presented regarding attempts to further elucidate and characterize the processes of aging, primarily in model organisms such as yeast, C. elegans (worms), and mice. A detailed summary of the sessions is available here. The work spanned some repeating themes in aging research:

Theme: processes work in younger organisms but not in older organisms
A common theme in aging is that processes function well in the first half of an organism’s life, then break-down in the second half, particularly the last 20% of the lifespan. In one example, visualizations and animations were created from the 3D tissue-sectioning of the intestine of young (4 days old) and old (20 days old) C. elegans. In the younger worms, nuclei and cells were homogenous and regularly spaced over the course of the intestine running down the length of the worm. In older worms, nuclei disappeared (an initial 30 sometimes ultimately dropped to 10), and the intestine became twisted and alternately shrunken and convoluted due to DNA accumulation and bacterial build-up.

Theme: metabolism and oxidation critically influence aging processes
Two interesting talks concerned UCP2 (mitochondrial uncoupling protein 2), an enzyme which reduces the rate of ATP synthesis and regulates bioenergy balance. UCP2 and UCP3 have an important but not yet fully understood role in regulating ROS (reactive oxygen species) and overall metabolic function, possibly by allowing protons to enter the mitochondria without oxidative phosphorylation. The mechanism was explored in results that worm lifespan was extended by inserting zebrafish UCP2 genes (not natively present in the worm).

Theme: immune system becomes compromised in older organisms
Two talks addressed the issue of immune system compromise. One team created a predictive analysis that could be used to assess an individual’s immune profile and potential response to vaccines by evaluating demographics, chronic infection status, gene expression data, cytokine levels, and cell subset function. Other work looked into the specific mechanisms that may degrade immune systems in older organisms. SIRT1 (an enzyme related to cell regulation) levels decline with age. This leads to the instable acetylation of transcription factor FoxP3 (a gene involved in immune system response), which suppresses the immune system by reducing regulatory T cell (Treg) differentiation to respond to pathogens.

Theme: systems-level understanding of aging processes
Many aging processes are systemic in nature with complex branching pathways and unclear causality. Research was presented regarding two areas: p53 pathway initiation and amyloid beta plaque generation. P53 is a critical tumor suppressor protein controlling many processes related to aging and cell maintenance: cell division, apoptosis, and senescence, and is estimated to be mutated in 50% of cancers. Research suggested that more clues for understanding the multifactorial p53 pathway could come from SnoN, which may be an alternative mechanism for activating p53 as part of cellular stress response. Neurodegenerative pathologies such as Alzheimer’s disease remain unsolved problems in aging. For example, it is not known if the amyloid beta plaques that arise are causal, or a protection mechanism in response to other causal agents. Some research looked at where amyloid beta is produced in cells, finding that after the amyloid precursor protein (APP) leaves the endosome, both the Golgi and a related recycling complex may be related in the generation of amyloid beta.

Theme: lack of conservation progressing up the model organism chain
Aging and other biological processes become more complicated with progression up the chain of model organisms. What works in yeast and worms may not work in mice, and what works in mice and rats may not work in humans. Some interesting research looked at ribosomal proteins, whose deletion is known to extend lifespan in model organisms. The key points were first that there was fairly little (perhaps less than 20%) overlap in lifespan-extending ribosomal protein deletions conserved between yeast and worms. Second, an examination of some of the shared deletions in mice (especially RPL19, 22, and 29) found some conservation (e.g.; RPL29), and also underlined the systemic-nature of biology, finding that other homologous genes (e.g.; RPL22L (“-like”)) may compensate for the deletion, and thereby not extend lifespan.

Theme: trade-offs is a key dynamic of aging processes
The idea of trade-offs is another common theme in aging; the trade-offs between processes, resource consumption, and selection. Exemplar of this was research showing that the deletion of a single gene involved in lipid synthesis, DGAT1, is beneficial and promotes longevity in mice when calories are abundant, but is also crucial for survival in calorie restricted situations. This supports the use of directed methylation to turn genes on and off in different situations. More details were presented in a second area of trade-offs: reproduction-lifespan. It is known that reproduction is costly and organisms without reproductive mechanisms may have extended lifespans. Research examined the specific pathways, finding that Wnt and steroid hormone signaling in germline and somatic reproductive tissues influenced worm longevity, particularly through non-canonical (e.g.; not the usual) pathways by involving signaling components MOM-2/Wnt and WRM-1/beta-catenin.

Conclusion
Academic aging research is continually making progress in the painstaking characterization of specific biological phenomena in model organisms, however the question naturally arises as to when and how the findings may be applied in humans for improving lifespan and healthspan. In fact there is a fair degree of activity in applied human aging research. Just as more individuals are starting to include genomic medicine, preventive medicine, and baseline wellness marker measurement in health self-management, so too are they consulting with longevity doctors. One challenge is that at present it is incumbent on individuals to independently research doctors and treatments. Hopefully in the future there could be a standard list of the anti-aging therapies that longevity doctors would typically offer. Meanwhile, one significant way for an individual to start taking action is by self-tracking: measuring a variety of biomarkers, for example annual blood tests, and exercise, weight, nutritional intake, supplements, and sleep on a more frequent basis.

Multiworld ethics and infinitarian paralysis

2010-11-28T12:56:00.000-08:00

In an interesting 2008 essay (The Infinitarian Challenge to Aggregative Ethics), Oxford futurist scholar Nick Bostrom considers some of the issues that may arise in multiworld ethics. The central focus is on the theme of infinitarian paralysis, that individuals may not act since they think their impact is too small to matter. This is not a new theme; a classic example is not voting thinking that one voice does not matter. However, when considered in an infinite multiworld sense where every permutation of every individual and their actions exists elsewhere, perhaps individual voices really do not matter…and individual agents in any world could experience infinitarian paralysis.

As the essay suggests, humans may be able to qualify and circumscribe the issue of infinitarian paralysis and live and act unconcernedly in the current world. While this may be possible now, as humans become more rational through augmentation, and with the potential advent of artificial intelligence and hybrid beings, the specter of infinitarian paralysis may be harder to ignore. The inherent irrationality of humans together with the skill of ubiquitous rationalization is part of the cohesion of modern society. However, in a post-scarcity economy for material goods where the more immediate exigencies of living in the current world have evaporated, and biologically-derived utility functions have been re-designed, philosophical inconsistencies could well occupy a higher level of concern for thought-driven beings.

Evolutionary adaptations and artificial intelligence

2010-11-21T12:14:00.000-08:00

Art and religion are human evolutionary adaptations. Are there similar evolutionary adaptations that human-level and beyond artificial intelligence would be likely to make? Another way to ask this is whether art and religion were predictable? It seems that they were, maybe not the detailed outcomes, but that mechanisms would arise to allow for the achievement of human objectives such as status-garnering and mate selection.

Likewise, it seems quite possible that human-level and beyond artificial intelligence would be likely to make evolutionary adaptations. Utility functions could be edited in many ways. The primary area could be performance optimization, continuously improving cognition and other operations. A second area could be related to societal objectives to the extent that artificial intelligence is present in communities. Artificial intelligence might not have art and religion, but could have related mechanisms for achieving external and internal purposes.

Cognitive enhancement through longer Schwann cells

2010-11-14T17:05:00.000-08:00

Do faster thinkers have longer Schwann cells? Evolution has optimized human brain signal transmission in the existing machinery. Schwann cells (nerve cells) are punctuated with Nodes of Ranvier, unwrapped spaces that occur regularly on axons between the myelin sheaths that wrap and insulate the axons. The Nodes of Ranvier make signal transmission faster and conserve energy.

While Schwann cells may be the minimal length for the selection processes of evolution, they may not be optimized for modern thought. In many cases, modern thought constitutes more reasoning, imagining, conceptualizing, and contemplation than fight or flight responses. Different brain patterns arise from the different kinds of thought. One path to cognitive enhancement could be lengthening Schwann cells for faster transmission and possibly faster cognition.

Human body 2.0

2010-11-07T16:43:00.000-08:00

The human body is a complex intricate composite of millions of years of evolution, but even the most cursory review immediately suggests the potential benefits of redesign. Without considering the deep possibilities and eventual exigencies of augmentation, it might be possible to replicate the full existing functionality of a human in a much smaller energy-conscious form factor, perhaps 1/10 the current size.

Waste: materials generation and energy expenditure
The biggest theme is waste due to untargeted processes. The main forms of waste are excess materials generated and energy used to move them around, all of which require a big overall system. Unlike the latest drugs, most natural molecules are untargeted; they travel around the body until they bump into a place to bind or are expelled unused. It is not just waste running through the blood stream and circulatory system, for example, steroid hormones diffuse into all cells, only binding to a small number.

Optimizing systems without sacrificing functionality
It could be argued that there are benefits to redundancy and waste could be better in some systems than others, for example, the value of having an extensive immune system on patrol 24/7 even though unused cell turnover is high. However, optimization could likely improve all system parameters.

Redesign phases: improved targeting and receptor enhancement
A potential human body redesign would certainly occur in phases, revising a few lower-impact operations first, targeting certain small classes of proteins to existing receptors for example. A second phase could include the generation or specificity-enhancement of receptors for a finer resolution of targeting.

Eventually, with robust targeting, it might be possible for the body to pump around 90% less ‘stuff.’

This would imply tremendous energy savings, and in turn decreased requirements for fluid, nourishment, vitamin, and mineral intake, and could even slow aging as processes do not wear out as fast.

Form factor hybrids
A smaller form factor may be undesirable for many reasons, but presumably it would be possible for streamlined wetware systems to merge into different kinds of hybrid form factors with ultralight ultrastrong hardware.

Synbio in space

2010-10-31T16:23:00.000-07:00

Many interesting applications of synthetic biology in space missions were discussed at the Synthetic Biology workshop held October 30-31, 2010 at NASA Ames in conjunction with the National Academies Keck Futures Initiative. Scientists from a variety of backgrounds came together to brainstorm solutions in an integrative approach. The most impressive aspect was how different areas of synthetic biology have been progressing enough to discuss ideas and techniques that could be applied to space missions in a robust way.

Environment enhancement
One of the most important areas that synthetic biology may be able to help with is in making space environments more manageable and habitable by humans. The regolith, the powdery blanket covering the moon and Mars, may likely need to be ameliorated into harder less dusty surfaces.

Biomining
Synthetic biology could be helpful in creating microbes to faster weather regolith/rock for an order of magnitude quicker release of bioessential elements such as Magnesium, Calcium, Potassium, and Iron. (related publications)

Biomaterials and self-building habitats
Synthetic biology could help to create microbes for use in building structures, both as scaffolds and by growing on scaffolds. Bacterially-generated alternatives to Portland cement (bricks made from bacteria, sand, calcium chloride, and urea) are currently being investigated, along with other plant-development inspired architectures.

New gene function
While the discovery of new mammalian genes has become saturated, the majority of newly sequenced ocean-based microbes continue to have novel gene functions. Some of these may be quite useful in space environments, for example, D. radiodurans, which can withstand significant radiation and rebuild its DNA when damaged.

Space economics – the Basalt Economy
The economics of space suggest that synthetic biological solutions might be developed more readily for space challenges, and later deployed on Earth as the technologies mature. The main constraint for space is developing in-situ solutions that are cheaper than lifting materials from Earth, as opposed to creating competitive products for Earth-based supply chains (e.g.; synthetic biofuel).

Tools
Whole human genome and metabiome sequencing, genome synthesis and assembly, and genetic design and proofing software (bioCAD) as shown in Figure 1 are all improving. A vast industry similar to that of semiconductor design and manufacture could likely develop for synthetic biology.

Figure 1: Example of SLIC/Gibson/CPEC gene sequence assembly (Source)

Future of fashion

2010-10-24T11:29:00.000-07:00

A new idea, spray-painted clothing, joins digital textile printing and 3-D printed clothing as a possible tool for creating the future of fashion.

Spanish fashion designer Manel Torres, working together with scientists from University College London, has developed spray-on fabric (Figure 1). Short fibers of wool, linen or acrylic are mixed with a polymer solvent which binds immediately as they are sprayed onto a person or mannequin.

Figure 1: Spray-on Fabric developed by designed Manel Torres (Source)

Clothing made from spray-on fabric was presented at the Science in Style fashion show, September 21, 2010 in London (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Science in Style, London, September 21, 2010 (Source)

There are many speculations about the wide range of potential applications for spray-on fabric. Some of the obvious ideas for on-demand fabric are sterile bandages and military and crisis relief use. Practical uses are interesting too. For example, to the extent the material is recyclable and cost-effective, being able to spray-on additional layers when feeling cold, and easily remove and discard them when hot could be quite convenient. Rain gear could be similarly donned and discarded. The long-expected futurist’s dream of on-demand 3D clothing printing booths could be closer to being realized.

Phase transition in intelligence

2010-10-17T20:27:00.000-07:00

There could be at least three approaches to the long-term future of intelligence: engineering life into technology, simulated intelligence, and artificial intelligence. Further, while the story of evolutionary history is the domination of one form of intelligence, the future could hold ecosystems with multiple kinds of intelligence, particular specialized by purpose/task.

There are significant technical hurdles in executing simulated intelligence and artificial intelligence, but the areas have been progressing in Moore’s Law fashion. The engineering of life into technology will need to proceed expediently to keep pace with technological advance, and tie a lot of wetware loose ends together.

At present, the mutation rate of genetic replication puts an upward bound on how complex biological organisms can be. The human cannot be more than about 10x as complex as Drosophila (the fruit fly), for example. However, if the error rate in the genetic replication machinery could be improved, maybe it would be possible to have organisms 10x more complex than humans, and so on, and so on…

Consumer genomic testing update

2010-10-10T11:25:00.000-07:00

In the wake of expected industry-wide regulation of consumer genomic testing, two of the big four testing companies, Navigenics and Pathway Genomics, have pulled their direct-to-consumer offerings in the last few months. Now a doctor must order their tests.

23andMe and deCODEme still have consumer genomic tests available, covering 174 conditions for $429 and 49 conditions for $2,000, respectively (Figure 1). Sooner rather than later could be a good time to sign up for a genomic service, possibly using year-end HSA dollars.

Figure 1. Landscape of direct-to-consumer genomic testing services.

Source: DNA Testing: Living Longer Via Personal Genomics

The potential industry-wide regulation is in regard to two issues, one is whether a physician must order the tests, and two, whether companies should be able to publish their interpretations of the results.

The DIYgenomics website lists two online petitions in support of rights to one's own genetic data:

Petition for Access to Genetic Information

Petition for Health Data Rights

Hardware apps (smartphone peripherals)

2010-10-03T11:48:00.000-07:00

Apps are not just software anymore! The interesting new field of hardware apps, or smartphone peripherals, is under development.

One example is the iPhly iPhone-based radio controller. Radar detectors and dashboard car-surveillance cams could follow. Earthquake sensors are another obvious application, as accelerometer chips for sensing earthquakes have already been used in laptops.

Miniaturized modules could snap onto smartphones for many different applications. Scientific instruments could be an interesting application area, giving any individual the opportunity to have a mobile lab. Ultrasound and portable microscopes have already been demonstrated (iPhone attachment, cell phone attachment).

Portable personal sensing modules for biodefense (iPhone biodefense app spec) and health optimization could be a killer app. Microneedle arrays could continuously or periodically perform a sampling of hundreds of blood-based data points like Orsense does for continuous glucose monitoring. Mass spectrometer attachments could identify any substance chemically. Miniaturized genome sequencers and RNA sequencers could identify the underlying DNA and expression profiles of samples.

Future Art

2010-09-26T11:37:00.000-07:00

Art interprets, defines, and responds to the social and intellectual milieu of any era.

Impressionists reacted to the precise definition of the day, somewhat from the newtech, photography, by making things more blurry. Modern art reacted to everything having been made visible by transcending into the conceptual and abstract. What is the iconic reaction that could drive the contemporary art of today into a radical new era?

Computers, data flows, communications, machines, computation, and software are the hallmark of today’s culture. Their ubiquity and influence invites rejection and commentary, and the anticipated response has been portrayed in dystopian machine art.

Beyond the obvious rejection of the machine era, computers, software, and data provide a vibrant new medium for art. For example, data visualization could be seen as art modulated with information.

Sentiment engines have become the art and barometer of worldwide emotion, for example We Feel Fine (blogs), and Pulse of a Nation (Twitter).

The time lapse photography concept used for flight pattern visualization (US, worldwide) could be extended to other areas.

Software code base data visualization
One form of contemporary art could be the sped-up visualization of code commits to software repositories for large-scale projects. The code might look like living organisms, possibly interesting new species. The fast flash of DOS is the prokaryote to Windows 7 and Mac OS X eukaryotes. iPhone could be the raptor to the Android’s human.

Real-time economy feeds and ambient economics

2010-09-19T17:54:00.000-07:00

Social economic networks are just one part of the broader context of the transformational economics that may eventually lead to a post-scarcity economy for material goods. In addition monetizing alternative currencies and unlocking previously inaccessible value, social economic networks are also generating a critical meta asset: billions of data points which can be aggregated into real-time economy feeds.

At present, the pulse of the real-time economy can be read first through crowd-sourced websites such as Blippy, where users automatically post personal economic transactions as they occur, and consumer prediction markets sites like the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the simExchange, where users opine on box office receipts of new movie releases and the sales levels of new video games.

Aggregated longitudinal comparisons can be made, for example getting an early look as to whether this is a slower quarter for a particular company, or whether consumer spending in general is lower in this period compared to another.

Just as social media ‘likes’ and status update commentary can be used to infer consumer values and preferences with a sentiment engine for anticipatory demand, this data too can be aggregated. While many dismiss ‘I ate a hotdog’ as meaningless social media drivel, when aggregated at the macro level, it could be more broadly meaningful as a leading indicator of pork consumption.

Connecting social economic networks with real-time location through mobile networks and smartphone applications could be another significant step in shifting economics as buyers and sellers connect seamlessly in an ongoing process of ambient supply and demand interaction and automatic markets.

Personal genome: data analysis challenge

2010-09-12T12:23:00.000-07:00

Five themes emerged from the material presented at the 3rd annual personal genomes meeting at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory held September 10-12, 2010.

First was the trend of family sequencing becoming more of a norm; looking at genetic disease as it is represented in trios, quartets or other family groups.

Second was the trend of increasingly common multi-level analysis, investigating traditional genotype data together with structural variation, expression data, pathways, and cell lines.

Third was the trend of greater breadth and sophistication in cancer genome analysis; the fledgling field of a few years ago now including dozens of sequenced cancer tumor genomes, the first cancer methylome, and cancer transcriptome analysis.

Fourth was the trend of the oft-heard challenge of scaling personal genome interpretation, making it automated, affordable, and actionable.

The fifth theme was the continued improvement in genome sequencing technology through new approaches such as quantum dot nanocrystal sequencing and strobe sequencing.

Crowdsourcing: labor-as-a-service marketplaces

2010-09-05T08:35:00.000-07:00

The dynamism of the information economy, the internet, and the recession have forced and allowed the flowering of labor-as-a-service marketplaces. Individuals can self-direct their professional activity with greater empowerment, and service-consumers can be more selective and focused in their purchase of labor services through crowdsourcing. More productive use of time can occur for both service-providers and service-consumers.

Work is becoming quantized.

The big shift is to labor-as-a-service generally, where in the past marketplaces were more focused on software coding and other vertical markets. The new labor marketplaces include oDesk, CloudCrowd, CrowdFlower, ClickWorker, crowdSPRING, LiveOps, and editLift. These startups broaden the existing affinity marketplace landscape of companies such as 99designs, Justmeans, TopCoder, RentACoder, Elance, and Guru.

You know an industry has arrived when Freelance Camps and conferences (CrowdConf2010) start happening!

Thought-leadership provided by Dan Pink’s Free Agent Nation, the ROWE (ROWE (Results Oriented Work Environment) concept, and Tom Malone’s The Future of Work is finally coming to greater fruition.

Anticipative demand and consumer intent prediction

2010-08-29T09:35:00.000-07:00

Social economic networks improve the value proposition for both individual and institutional consumers since products and services can be discovered and targeted with greater relevancy.

Rich attribute information posted publicly by social media users (individual and institutional) can be used by marketers and other interested parties (for example, potential employees) to infer the values, preferences, and interests of others. In response, hyper-personalized advertisements may be presented (Reference: Shih, The Facebook Era, 2009).

Hyper-targeted-marketing, recommendations, and authentic product endorsements from friends are some of the ways that social economic networks have improved commerce relevancy.

The next obvious step would be for vendors to predict demand before it occurs, responding to customer intention.

Intention prediction could be accomplished by merging aggregate Facebook or other social media ‘likes’ and comments from high-influence users into purchase intent well before sales transactions. An anticipative demand market could arise.

Traditional economics equations could be further transformed as vendors test large varieties of targeted offerings in cost-effective ways via the internet.

The long-tail of supply and demand could meet in millions of micro-markets, possibly even at the level of individual pricing and individual offerings. Smaller lot sizes means higher margin. There are numerous entrepreneurial opportunities in facilitating product and service generation, production, and distribution at the level of n=1.

Social currency unlocks value for individuals and organizations

2010-08-22T04:42:00.000-07:00

Social currency, shared information which encourages further social encounters, is transacted through social economic networks.

From an economic perspective, the role of social economic networks is to unlock and monetize hidden value. This value is mainly in the form of information asymmetry as buyers and sellers hold information that is useful to each other. Both buyer and seller realize greater utility than if the social economic network did not exist.

Social economic networks are impacting both individuals and organizations at the global and local level. Transactions may be between anonymous parties or parties who know each other. For example, in the Groupon / Peixe Urbano group-purchasing model, individuals pre-commit to a purchase to obtain a discount if a minimum number of people participate.

With social economic networks, organizations can unlock intellectual capital (social business intelligence) in ways that were not possible before with tools such as prediction markets (a mechanism for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles). The concepts are attractive on a global level and can be implemented on a local level with the democratizing power of the internet.

Social economic networks could likely grow in the next several years, particularly in the type of assets created, and in the venues and models for their exchange.

Social economic networks and the new intangibles

2010-08-15T19:57:00.000-07:00

Social economic networks are helping to monetize the new intangibles that arise from alternative currencies such as intention, attention, time, ideas, creativity, and health data. Individuals are starting to realize that they have more assets that have economic value besides labor; multiple currencies that are starting to become monetizable.

The new currencies have new measurement metrics for monetization such as awareness, influence, authenticity, reach, action, engagement, impact, spread, connectedness, velocity, participation, shared values, and presence. As market principles become the norm for intangible resource allocation and exchange, all market agents are starting to have a more intuitive and pervasive concept of exchange and reciprocity.

Reputation has always been an important intangible asset, and was one of the first alternative currencies cited; however it was not really monetizable other than as an attribute of labor capital. Now, there are more alternative currencies, such as social currency, that are directly monetizable through social economic networks.

Real value and real assets are being created in social economic networks. For example, products and services have higher value when they are recommended. An information asset that has been generated, largely through crowd-sourced labor, is product and service recommendations. Some examples of these information resources that facilitate shopping include Amazon reviews, Yelp local business recommendations, social shopping sites (e.g.; Kaboodle, Polyvore, StyleHive, ThisNext), and product attribute discovery and dialogue sites (e.g.; Stickybits, ClickZ).

Long-tail economics extended to physical objects

2010-08-08T07:36:00.000-07:00

Chris Anderson, editor of WIRED magazine, gave an excellent talk on August 5, 2010 at the PARC Forum. He explained how the long-tail economic models which have driven digital content (allowing consumers to access books, music, and movies in the 80% of the market that is not blockbusters) are now starting to appear in the world of physical goods.

The process of realizing long-tail economics in any sector is that of going one-to-many; democratizing the tools of creation, then the tools of production, and finally the tools of distribution. This is what happened with internet content such as publishing, where it is now easy for anyone to create, produce, and distribute content with blogs, twitter feeds, YouTube, etc. This has also happened with other digital content and some physical goods that are ordered and distributed via internet models (e.g.; Amazon, Zappos, etc.).

The new industrial revolution, argues Anderson, is in opensource hardware factories. The supply chain has now opened up to the digital and the small. The ability to make and distribute anything massively decentralizes traditional manufacturing and could completely reorganize industrial economies…atoms are the new bits. Matthew Sobol’s holons (communities of local resilience and sustainability) are in the works. Goods can be self-designed or crafted from available digital designs (e.g.; communities like ShapeWays and Ponoko), and then printed locally on the MakerBot or ordered from Alibaba or other global manufacturies. Opensource manufacturing is starting to have an impact on industries like auto design and construction (e.g.; Local Motors), drones (e.g.; DIY Drones), and general hardware design (empowered by the Beagle Board and Arduino).

It is likely that long-tail economics can be applied to many other areas. Medicine is the next obvious example, where health care, health maintenance, drug development, and disease treatment are already starting to shift into n=1 or n=small group tiers of greater customization and ideally, lower cost as more precision is obtained in the measuring and understanding of disease and wellness.

The real-time economy

2010-08-01T08:27:00.000-07:00

The encephalization of the earth (the coming together of human minds in a variety of higher resolution formats) is picking up speed. More and more people have a pass to join the information highway – Honest Signals points out that ten years ago, less than half the world’s population had made a phone call, but today, 70% of the world’s population has access to a phone for calls and texting.

Numerous collective intelligence tools have been emerging to uplevel and structure the context and quality of human interaction. The Wikipedia is the quintessential collective intelligence tool, as are wikis generally, social networks, buzzing and tweeting status updates, collaboration websites, question networks, social purchasing networks, and prediction markets.

The real-time economy
The pulse of activity from collective intelligence tools can be measured in many ways, and is importantly surfacing as a leading indicator for the real-time economy. Prediction markets and social purchasing networks could supplant traditional mechanisms for identifying economic activity and shifts.

For example, there were a number of ways to watch the real-time status of this week’s long-awaited launch of Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty (Blizzard Entertainment’s latest release in one of the highest grossing video game franchises of all time). The usual tweet stream and buzz feed provided an instant indication of activity. The next highest level was the Blippy feed of real-time purchases. Third, of greatest salience was the SimExchange video game prediction market which provided the highest resolution aggregation of opinion, and was early in calling the sales disappointment during the game's pre-launch and launch (Figures 1-2).

Figure 1: Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty, 7/28/10 (release day) (Source)

Figure 2: Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty, 7/31/10 (Source)

The next obvious step is predicting economic activity even earlier, merging aggregate Facebook likes with social network high-influencer opinions into purchase intent well before sales transactions, in fact, using the encephalization ether for market demand identification and product development.

Citizen scientists innovate research model

2010-07-25T07:48:00.000-07:00

It is clear that quantified self-tracking, preventive medicine, and community-based research conducted by citizen scientists could be a huge new industry. The coming era of very large data sets and continuously collected information with algorithmic tools for signal-to-noise interpretation could significantly shift how the baseline measures of health are defined and managed. Citizen science is re-innovating the model for conducting science at every level.

In the traditional research model (Figure 1), there is a principal investigator at an institution, conducting research on subjects, under the purview of an Institutional Review Board, supported by grant funding and publishing results in journals.

Figure 1. Traditional Science Research Model

(source: DIYgenomics - an open platform for citizen science research)

The citizen science model (Figure 2) is different as there is no distinction between investigator and subject, everyone is an investigator and participant; therefore the analog to the IRB is different, perhaps there are citizen ethicists, or a list of FAQs. Funding could come from patient advocacy groups, innovative research foundations, social venture capital, and crowd-sourcing; and research results could be self-published on the web.

Figure 2. Citizen Science Research Model
(source: DIYgenomics - an open platform for citizen science research)

Blood tests 2.0: finger-stick and microneedle array

2010-07-18T12:13:00.000-07:00

The farther future could include smartpatches - non-invasive, invisible, continuously-worn health self-monitoring skin patches. In the nearer future, a killer app for synthetic biology and other new chemistry and biology 2.0 methods could be the ability to create one's own vitamin supplements, and possibly innovate low-cost, non-prescription based finger-stick blood tests, and saliva and urine panels for self-testing.

Barrier to Citizen Science
A significant barrier to the wide-scale adoption of citizen science in the context of health self-management, intervention exploration, and preventive medicine implementation is the high cost, inconvenience and discomfort involved in obtaining traditional lab tests. While many tests may be ordered in a direct-to-consumer fashion through DirectLabs, the Life Extension Foundation, and other websites, it still costs ~$100 per test.

The challenge is to identify the requisite chemistry and processes involved and see if it may be possible to make simple consumer-friendly finger-stick blood test cartridges, similar to the glucose and HDL measurement kits sold at drug stores, which self-experimenters may perform at home or at community biolabs. Continuous monitoring via microneedle arrays would be useful for self-tracking glucose levels and other markers. For example, there could be consumer-targeted versions of the devices being developed by Orsense.

Figure 1. Non-invasive glucose monitoring device from Orsense

Community labs and high-end home labs may include the (CLIA-waived) Cholestech LDX machine (~$2,000 for the machine + ~$5-10 per measurement cassette) which can assess eight different lipid profiles.

Figure 2. Cholestech LDX finger-stick lipid measurement device

There is an urgent opportunity to expand the range of finger-stick measurement tests. Below is a Wish List of basic tests for one-off or comprehensive panel delivery.

Traditional Blood markers:

Homocysteine
Vitamin B-12
Folate
Vitamin D
Creatinine
eGFR
Cortisol
Calcium
Iron
Aldosterone

Hormones

Estrogen
Progesterone
Testosterone
Estradiol

Ethics of historical revivification

2010-07-11T09:06:00.000-07:00

Thought experiment: Assuming a world or worlds without basic resource constraints, if technologically possible, would it be more humane or less human humane to revive dead persons from history? Even those recently dead could be out of sync with the current milieu. Obviously, there would need to be rehab programs as contemplated in science fiction, for example,

"Life 101: Introducing Genghis Khan to the iPhone"

If is arguable that some large percent of dead persons would find enjoyment and utility in revivification.

The interpretation of the core rights of the individual could be different in the future. “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” seems immutable, even when considered in the possible farther future context of many worlds, uploaded mindfiles, and human/AI hybrid intelligences. However, how these principles are applied in practice could seem strange from different historical viewpoints.

Attributes that might be important to an individual now, for example embodiment or corporeality (being physically instantiated in a body), could well be moot in the future. On-demand instantiation could be a norm to complement digital mindfiles.

It could be queried whether revived historical persons should have the option to re-die? Dying and suicide could be much different conceptually in a digital upload culture. Choosing not to run your mindfile could be legal, but deleting it (and all backups) could be the equivalent of suicide, which is generally illegal in contemporary society.

Automated nourishment

2010-07-04T08:58:00.000-07:00

An interesting question arose from discussions at the recent IFTF annual forecast presentation - Would people be more or less healthy in a possible future era of 3-D food-printing on-demand?

Both sides of the case can be seen. The immediate conclusion might be that if anyone could print any food item on-demand any time, people would over-consume and be less healthy.

However, one of the biggest mistakes that can occur when considering a potential future advance is thinking of it in isolation and not bringing forward all other aspects of technology and society to this point too. In an era with on-demand 3-D food printing, other changes are also likely to have occurred. The first and most obvious is that perhaps food content or accompanying supplements, drugs, and nutraceuticals have changed to mean that food that tastes good is not necessarily unhealthy, even when consumed in large quantities. Non-fat non-sugar substitutes may have become seamless matches in the quality of taste but not in caloric consumption. Today’s unhealthy foods could go the way of cigarettes. Automated calorie consumption data collection might finally be possible.

A second argument for why people would be more rather than less healthy in an era of on-demand 3-D food printing is the massively granular physical tracking and biofeedback tools that could exist for each person. Smarthouse and smartclothing data collection through scanning and air, toilet, and unnoticeable blood stick diagnostics could be inputs to a continuously updating personal digital health model (e.g.; the future analog to Entelos's virtual patient or Archimedes's virtual twin). A personal digital health model could be used to assess exactly which real-time nutritional adjustments are needed by an individual. An automated menu plan from the kitchen printer may be preferable for creating meals based on an individual’s known preferences and reactions together with real-time needs. The portable personal digital health model could be permissioned into restaurant settings to similarly allow for customized meal synthesis.

A third argument comes from considering the potential trajectories of social networking and behavior change research. Already peer social networks have a strong influence on individual behavior. One’s whole peer network or interest group could be encouraging healthy behavior via team-based support and/or competition. The advent and widespread adoption of self-tracking and social interaction tools could bring about a new sensibility and personal responsibility for health self-management. Optional financial incentives from insurance companies could further facilitate behavior change.

Conclusion
In any possible future, there could be different technologies and social behavioral norms influencing the process of human nourishment. Food could become healthier over time and unobtrusive self-tracking tools and financial incentives could shift people to automated menu plans. Healthier behavior could be triggered just by making it easy.

Questions uplevel the web

2010-06-27T07:54:00.000-07:00

A new internet trend has popped up – asking questions to friends and strangers. Questions are a light-weight means of bringing structure and context to social interaction.

Many people start off with a low level of engagement (e.g.; what is the best pizza place in your neighborhood?). Things can start scaling up (e.g.; how much does it cost for a family to live in London on average?) and become quite detailed (e.g.; can a publisher see the average CPC or eCPM of a particular ad or advertiser on AdSense?). More importantly, more complex thoughts, opinion, philosophy, and value systems are being elicited (e.g.; what is a good real-world example of the "prisoner's dilemma" in recent history?).

The question-asking trend began with Hunch asking users questions to draw a taste profile map for users. The current generation of the concept features sites like Quora and formspring where users ask each other questions. Users have profiles and friending/following capability, with their questions and answer activity appearing in a status feed. It is like a friend network with topic precision.

Metrics would be interesting, such as the level of semantic complexity of questions, the number of repeated questions (an indicator of what is on the collective mind), and the ratio of asked to answered questions.

Question networks could be the real start of the semantic web, the natural automated approach (akin to Google’s automated machine learning) for creating the next higher level of information density.

Crisis telediagnosis mobile app demo

2010-06-20T10:01:00.000-07:00

Technology-driven tools are evolving so that crisis response can be more participatory, and have more advance preparedness. A demo of the Triage4G mobile app (Android and web platforms) occurred at the Clear 4G WiMAX Developers Symposium held at Stanford University, June 15, 2010. The Triage4G app features live video-conferencing and real-time matching between first responders/crisis victims and remote physicians for telediagnosis. (Application download)

Figure 1. Crisis telediagnosis: real-time matching of first responders/victims and remote physicians for live streaming video telediagnosis

Figure 2. Screenshots - a first responder launches the Triage4G app and inputs Triage Tag data. GPS information is use to create case number. A real-time remote physician match is requested.

Figure 3. Screenshots - a physician receives SMS notification of a patient requesting telediagnosis and logs in to the Triage4G app via smartphone or desktop.

Figure 4. Screenshots - when the match is complete, the first responder's screen updates with the case number and a button to launch Qik. The doctor's screen updates to the first responder's Qik page and then the live video steam begins.

Dollar Van Demos

2010-06-13T11:41:00.000-07:00

Easily the phreshest idea from New York’s Internet Week, held in Manhattan June 7-14, was Dollar Van Demos! Dollar Van Demos are a showcase of musicians, rappers, and comedians performing inside a dollar van with real passengers. Numerous Brooklyn-based artists are featured in a collection of videos filmed inside dollar vans as they travel along their usual transportation routes.

The site has new videos from Cocoa Sarai, Tah Phrum Duh Bush, Grey Matter, Zuzuka Poderosa, Kid Lucky, Atlas, BIMB Family, I-John, Top Dolla Raz, Hasan Salaam, illSpokinn, Joya Bravo, Bacardiiiii and Jarel soon!

Figure 1. Example videos from Cocoa Sarai and Top $ Raz

Rational growth in consumer genomics

2010-06-06T08:21:00.000-07:00

The overall tone of the Consumer Genetics Show, held June 2-4, 2010 in Boston MA, was a pragmatic focus on the issues at hand as compared with the enthusiasm and optimism that had marked the conference’s inaugural event last year. One of the biggest shifts was the new programs that some top-tier health service providers have been developing to include genetic testing and interpretation in their organizations. It also became clear that the few widely-agreed upon success stories for genomics in disease diagnosis and drug response (i.e.; warfarin dosing) have been costly to achieve and will not scale to all diseases and all drugs. Cancer continues to be a key killer app for genomics in diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, cancer tumor sequencing, and risk prediction. Appropriate approaches to multigenic risk assessment for health risk and drug response remain untackled. Greater state and federal regulation seems inevitable. Faster-than-Moore’s-law improvements in sequencing costs continue as Illumina dropped the price of whole human genome sequencing for the retail market from $48,000 to $19,500.

There was generally wide agreement that from a public health perspective, personalized genomics is scientifically valid, clinically useful, and reimbursable in specific situations, but not universally – at this time, better information should be obtained for some people, not more information for all people. The focus should be on medical genetics strongly linked to disease, and on pharmacogenomics in treatment. For example, genomic analysis is required for some drugs by the FDA (maraviroc, cetuximab, trastuzumab, and dasatinib), and recommended for several others (warfarin, rasburicase, carbamazepine, abacavir, azathiprine, and irinotecan). A key point is to integrate the drug test with the guidance for drug dosage.

Even when genomic tests are inexpensive enough to be routine, interpretation may be a bottleneck as each individual’s situation is different when taking into account family history, personal medical history, and environmental and other factors. One idea was that the 20,000 pathologists in the US could be a resource for genomic test interpretation; pathologists are already involved as they must certify genetic test data in CLIA labs. Genomic tests and their interpretation would likely need to be standardized and certified in order to be reimbursed in routine medical care. A challenge is that health service payers are not interested or able to drive genomic test product design.

Key science findings

1. The Regulome and Structural Variation

Michael Snyder presented important research that the regulome, the parts of the genome located around the exome (the 1-2% of the genome that codes for protein), may be critical in understanding disease genesis and biological processes. The complexities of RNA are just beginning to be understood. It is known that there is more than just the simple transcription of DNA to RNA involved in controlling gene expression. For example, there is also tight regulation in splicing newly synthesized RNA molecules into the final RNA molecule and in translating messenger RNA to ribosomes to create proteins. Research findings indicate a global/local model of gene regulation, that there are master regulators with universal reach and local regulators operating on a local range of 200 or so genes.

Snyder also presented updates on his lab’s ongoing research into the structural variation of the human genome. A high-resolution sequencing study has been conducted regarding the amount of structural variation in humans, finding that there are ~1,500 structural variations per person that are over 3 kilobases long and that the majority of the structural variations are 3-10 kilobases long with a few extending to 50-100 kilobases (application of this research: Kasowski M, Science, 2010 Apr 9).

2. Reaching beyond the genome to the diseasome, proteome, and microbiome

Several scientists addressed the ways in which science is quickly reaching beyond the single point mutations and structural variation of the genome to other layers of information. There is a need for the digital quantification of the epigenome, the methylome, the transcriptome, the proteome, the metabolome, and the dieaseome/VDJome. For example, the immune system is one of the best monitors of disease state and progression. The strength of individual immune systems can be evaluated through the VDJome (the repertoire of recombined V-D-J regions in immune cells; cumulative immunoglobulin and T-cell receptor antigen exposure)

There are many areas of interest in proteomics including protein profiling, protein-protein interactions, and post-translational modification. A large-scale digital approach to proteomics was presented by Michael Weiner of Affomix. A key focal area is post-translational modification. At least one hundred post-translational modifications have been found, and two are being investigated in particular: phosphorylation (the signal transduction can possibly indicate tumor formation) and glycosylation (possibly indicating tumor progression).

The microbiome (human microbial bacteria) and host-bacteria interactions are an important area for understanding human disease and drug response, and for Procter & Gamble in creating consumer products. The company has basic research and publications underlying products such as the ProX anti-wrinkle skin cream (Hillebrand, Brit Jrl Derm, 2010), rhinovirus, and gingivitis. The company has a substantial vested interest in understanding the microbiome with its variety of nasal, oral, scalp, respiratory, skin, and GI tract-related products.

Microbubbles and photoacoustic probes energize cancer researchers

2010-05-30T15:10:00.000-07:00

The Canary Foundation’s eighth year of activities was marked with a symposium held at Stanford University May 25-27, 2010. The Canary Foundation focuses on the early detection of cancer, specifically lung, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate cancer, in a three-step process of blood tests, imaging, and targeted treatment.

Imaging advances: microbubbles and photoacoustic probes
Imaging is an area that continues to make advances. One exciting development is the integration of multiple technologies, for example superimposing molecular information onto traditional CT scans. Contemporary scans may show that certain genes are over-expressed in the heart, for example, but obscure the specific nodule (tumor) location. Using integrins to bind to cancerous areas may allow their specific location to be detected (4 mm nodules now, and perhaps 2-3 mm nodules as scanning technologies continue to improve).

Other examples of integrated imaging technologies include microbubbles, which are gassy and can be detected with an ultrasound probe as they are triggered to vibrate. Similarly, photoacoustic probes use light to perturb cancerous tissue, and then sound detection tools transmit the vibrations. Smart probes are being explored to detect a variety of metaloproteases on the surface of cancer cells, breaking apart and entering cancer cells where they can be detected with an ultrasound probe.

Systems biology approaches to cancer
Similar to aging research, some of the most promising progress points in cancer research are due to a more systemic understanding of disease, and the increasing ability to use tools like gene expression analysis to trace processes across time. One example is being able to identify and model not just one, but whole collections of genes that may be expressed differentially in cancers, seeing that whole pathways are disrupted, and the downstream implications of this.

Cancer causality
Also as in aging research, the 'chicken or the egg' problem arises as multiple things that go wrong are identified, but which happens first, and causality, is still unknown. For example, in ovarian cancer, where there are often mutations in the p53 gene, and gene rearrangements and CNV (copy number variation; different numbers of copies of certain genes), but which occurs first and what causes both is unknown.

Predictive disease modeling
There continues to be a need for models that predict clinical outcome, and serve as accurate representations of disease. DNA and gene expression, integrated with traits and other phenotypic data in global coherent datasets could allow the ability to build probabilistic causal models of disease. It also may be appropriate to shift to physics/accelerator-type models to manage the scale of data now being generated and reviewed in biomedicine.

Human-data interface

2010-05-24T17:33:00.000-07:00

There is starting to be more data than ever available to individuals, including personal data, every detail of interactions, activities, behaviors, and health habits tracked. Some contend that humans are not ready to interact with massive data and that a common response is to ignore it. However, humans quickly adapt to most situations and this is the likely course with big data interaction.

Data is likely to only become more pervasive and intimate, and extraordinarily useful to those who can harness it.

There is a structural factor with data collection that could be masking the value of the information – timeframes and scale. Data is collected on daily or hourly timeframes, but may be most useful 1) being dormant, a reserve reference with which to compare when anomalies arise, and 2) longitudinally, reflecting attributes over long time scales; seeing a change in sleep patterns over decades for example. Another example is that while it might seem useless to record one's temperature every day, knowing the average temperatures and heart rates of individuals in a community and any deltas (changes) could be quite useful in predicting the spread and magnitude of pandemics such as H1N1.

Unified health data climate

2010-05-16T12:01:00.000-07:00

The future of health management and biosecurity is having always-on access to the health data climate of individuals, families, communities, and countries. A whole new era of health awareness and self-management could be possible. Ideally, health data streams would be automatically captured and parsed into a comprehensive tableau of status monitoring and action-taking.

Key health data streams (Figure 1):

Genome - whole human genome sequence, abnormal tissue sequences (cancer, etc.)
Phenotype - current status of a wide range of biophysical markers including blood-based organ-secreted proteins prognosticating disease, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and emotional state
Diseasome - catalog of cumulative immune system exposures and predicted response to toxins
Microbiome - microflora bacteria profile (gut, genital, skin, oral, etc.)
Environmentome - external environment measures including air and water quality, pollen/allergens count

Figure 1: Key health data streams.

The big data graph era

2010-05-09T17:11:00.000-07:00

With the start of the big data era and the ability to collect, store and render meaningful numerous data points, the cultural outlook of the world is shifting too. Graphs, graphs, graphs. Individuals and communities have a social graph, taste graph, preference graph, affinity graph, attention graph, intention graph, values graph, emotion graph, health graph and more.

Graphing theory is being applied to many new contexts such as social networks, media consumption, nanotechnology fabrication, gaming, and genomic analysis and could be one of the many data analysis techniques applied to any large dataset. VLDS – very large datasets – and moving back into the cloud mean that sophisticated data analysis and artificial intelligence techniques could be an expected feature of websites just like social networking commentary and gaming elements have become today.

The preference economy

2010-05-02T21:14:00.000-07:00

There is now the new era of a multicurrency society. Numerous non-monetary currencies are coveted, amassed and exchanged including reputation, social graph, time, ideas, intention, attention, affinity, preference, health, and resource access.

The internet is already doing a good job of serving as a clearing exchange and means of valuation for the currencies of reputation, social graph, intention, and attention.

The next generation of economy 3.0 startups is building even more dimensionality into the multicurrency society.

Blippy broadcasts purchasing activity and serves as a leading indicator for public company quarterly sales; a real-time economy feed.

Hunch goes a step further with the grand vision of mapping and predicting the affinity of all people for all objects.

For example, what is any individual’s preference for Nike, TikTok, Slaughterhouse-Five, Ulan Bator, existentialism, or any other noun, brand, product, item, object or idea. Social feed “likes” are already being mined for preference, affinity, and revenue.

Value, preference, and affinity could become an expected attribute of any product, brand, website, and experience just like social networking is and gaming principles are starting to be. These seemingly unobtrusive currencies could stream nicely into exchange via automatic markets.

Supercomputing and human intelligence

2010-04-25T06:29:00.000-07:00

As of November 2009, the world’s fastest supercomputer was the Cray Jaguar located at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operating at 1.8 petaflops (1.8 x 10¹⁵ flops). Unlike human brain capacity, supercomputing capacity has been growing exponentially. In June 2005, the world’s fastest supercomputer was the IBM Blue Gene/L at Los Alamos National Laboratory, running at 0.1 petaflops. In less than five years, the Jaguar represents an order of magnitude increase, the latest culmination of capacity doublings each few years. (Figure 1)

Figure 1. Growth in supercomputer power

Source: Ray Kurzweil with modifications

The next supercomputing node, one more order of magnitude, at 10¹⁶ flops, is expected in 2011 with the Pleiades, Blue Waters, or Japanese RIKEN systems. 10¹⁶ flops would possibly allow the functional simulation of the human brain.

Clearly, there are many critical differences between the human brain and supercomputers. Supercomputers tend to be modular in architecture and address specific problems as opposed to having the general problem solving capabilities of the human brain. Having equal to or greater than human-level raw computing power in a machine does not necessarily confer the ability to compute as a human. Some estimates of the raw computational power of the human brain range between 10¹³ and 10¹⁶ operations per second. This would indicate that

supercomputing power is already on the order of estimated human brain capacity, but intelligent or human-simulating machines do not yet exist.

The digital comparison of raw computational capability may not be the right measure for understanding the complexity of the brain. Signal transmission is different in biological systems, with a variety of parameters such as context and continuum determining the quality and quantity of signals.

Radical transparency

2010-04-18T15:37:00.000-07:00

Social networking and Web 2.0 has made it easy to find out about the friends, resume, activities, and interests of the many people who permission-in and broadcast this information.

Financial privacy disappeared for groups of the population as benefits outweighed costs in peer-to-peer lending, real estate, expense management, and purchasing with Prosper, Zillow, Expensr, Mint, and now Blippy.

Health data is the new frontier as people are starting to publicly post their genome files, and perhaps blood test information with the SNPedia, Personal Genome Project, and DIYgenomics. Some people are tweeting their weight, and could possibly do so with their sleep-tracking Z scores and other quantified self tracking activities.

In the farther future, who will be the first to tweet their neural feed? The unexpurgated feed that would be captured directly from the brain, not medicated by language, typing, consciousness, and culture as now. As with other successful technology roll-out paradigms, truth culture is likely to be opt-in, and the competitive advantage could likely be with those who do decide to disclose.

Health 2.0 business models

2010-04-11T11:38:00.000-07:00

Health 2.0 is about re-envisioning every aspect of health and health care. New business models are starting to develop to support this innovation ecology. First, accompanying the new paradigm of community research (peer cohort studies à la Patients Like Me (lithium) and DIYgenomics (MTHFR mutation/Vitamin B-12 deficiency), could be social venture finance, corporate sponsorship from supplement companies and other remedy vendors, crowdsourced finance (i.e.; Kickstarter), and philanthropist contributions. Second, the traditional venture capital model is already being applied to health 2.o startup companies, including through organizations such as the Health 2.0 Accelerator. Third, whole new industries may sprout from the nascent efforts of health advisors and wellness coaches. The health advisor is the analog to the financial advisor or mortgage broker, able to integrate a client's health data streams, needs, and interests with available offerings, across a spectrum of economic models: insurance reimbursable, HSA dollars, and direct out-of-pocket spending.

Mobile app concept: Disaster Telediagnosis

2010-04-04T23:27:00.000-07:00

Disaster Telediagnosis is a mobile app idea that takes advantage of the bandwidth and mobility of 4G. It is a massively scalable peer-to-peer clearinghouse application providing live streaming video communication between people injured in a crisis situation and remote physicians for diagnosis and ongoing support until hand-off to local health authorities.

Whenever an injured party needs to interact with a physician, anyone with a smartphone can take a picture or stream live or archived video coverage to the internet clearinghouse to be connected in real-time with any available physician worldwide. There may be multiple interactions between patient and physician, both of whom are mobile, over the course of the case, and continuity can be preserved through high-bandwidth video connectivity. The internet clearinghouse could provide language matching or automated translation, and would log all calls based on GPS and other tagging attributes. Remote physicians could review and annotate patient electronic medical records, and the archived video files would provide patient history.

Figure 1: Disaster Telediagnosis

Any citizen with smartphone video capture could record injured parties describing their conditions, or otherwise document the status of the injured or dead. Video is streamed to the internet clearing application and on to available physicians, possibly with specialized language capabilities.

This application concept is accepted for presentation, if a demo can be realized, at the Clear 4G Symposium at Stanford in Palo Alto, CA, June 15, 2010; any interested developers and collaborators please contact the author.

Future of Crisis Management

2010-03-28T20:02:00.000-07:00

At the CMU-hosted Silicon Valley Crisis Camp, March 26-28, 2010, there was a lively brainstorming session about the longer-term future of disaster management. In the much farther future, crisis response could disappear since disasters might be prevented through weather management, sensor-equipped smartbuildings, and floating movable cities. When disasters do occur, they could be regarded as an annoyance rather than a catastrophic loss of human lives and property through the 3-D printing of physical bodies imprinted with recent mindfile backups, and robot-aided damage clearing and structure rebuilding.

In the medium term, advanced technology could transform crisis response in several ways:

Robotic first responders: Autonomous or remote-piloted robots could be used as a substitute to humans for assessing damage, scouting terrain, finding victims, and providing aid.
Super-smartphone: Super-smartphones could be messaged or would automatically sense disaster occurrence and switch into crisis mode, making disaster applications easily accessible, for example mapping software layers indicating relief shelters, and automatic status updates from personal social networks. Smartphones could track health status, vital signs, psychological state, and be used for telediagnosis and even possibly DIY surgery or other medical treatment. The user could run a virtual world app on the smartphone integrated with augmented reality to send their avatar out to inspect the local environment for self-rescue and peer-rescue.
Building codes 3.0: smart sensors could capture a variety of data about a building’s status and its occupants, for example knowing who or at least how many people are inside a building at any time (with regular data purges to protect privacy).
Gaming: An augmented reality (AR) game immediately begins when a crisis occurs. Participants earn points for crowdsourcing/reporting information, uploading video footage documenting damage, and accepting challenges (disaster management-related tasks). There could be many layers to the AR interface, heatmaps showing the injured and dead, building damage, resource availability, shelters and health clinic locations. Gaming could be used to pass time, distract, improve psychological state, and connect those in physical proximity.
Market principals: Technology tools could be used to create markets, to facilitate the discovery and exchange of different types of supply and demand: information, labor, time, relief resource availability, and distribution.
3-D printing of relief materials: blankets, food, shelter, medical supplies, and clinics could be printed with 3-D printers and online sharable CAD designs in urgent disaster response. Over time, smart infrastructure printing could be used to reconstruct buildings. Rubble could be recycled into building materials.
RFID-tagged resources: all aid resources and donations could be RFID-tagged for inventory management and delivery, including real-time updates of what is still available and functional from local stores; markets could develop to allocate resources.
Personal biosensors and bioactuators: personal biosensors are seamlessly incorporated into clothing to provide a personal data climate including both biophysical and environmental data. Biosensors can identify an approaching bioplague, download antibody plans from the internet, manufacture, and administer them. Similarly, radiation-resistant genes found in extremophiles could be downloaded and applied in the case of nuclear incidents.

Semiconductor roadmap updates

2010-03-21T12:39:00.001-07:00

The working group documents and presentations are now available from the most recent International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) 2009 Winter Conference held December 16, 2009 in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

One of the most important updates from the ITRS 2009 meeting is a shift out in the time scale for the next expected computing nodes. There is a focus on both FLASH memory ½ pitches and the usual DRAM ½ pitches as smaller nodes are expected to be achieved with FLASH before DRAM. Specifically for FLASH, 22 nm is estimated for 2013, 16 nm in 2016 and 11 nm in 2019. For DRAM, 32 nm is estimated for 2013, 22 nm in 2016, and 16 nm in 2019.

An important architectural shift is underway for packing more transistors onto chips: moving from planar to multidimensional architectures. Another big industry focus is in implementing 450 mm wafers for chip manufacturing, up from the 300 mm current standard. (Figure 1)

Figure 1: One of the world's first 450 mm wafers

In lithography, a key bottleneck area, the two main technologies that will probably be in use for the current and next few nodes are Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) and 193 nm immersion half pitch Double Patterning. EUV is less expensive. For later nodes (22 nm, 16 nm, and 11 nm), EUV and double patterning, together with ML2 (maskless lithography), imprinting, directed self-assembly, and interference lithography may be used.

An important challenge is the top-down (traditional engineered electronics) meets bottom-up (evolved molecular electronics) issue of how nodes 15 nm and smaller will be designed given quantum mechanics. The Emerging Research Devices (ERD) and Emerging Research Materials (ERM) working groups presented some innovative solutions, however the majority of the roadmap focus is on the nearer term, the next couple of nodes.

Neurotechnology taboos

2010-03-14T11:58:00.000-07:00

There is a claim that the magnitude of change that could eventually be possible with neurotechnology makes it different from other technologies. Those who choose not to buy cell phones may not be able to communicate in certain situations, but those who choose not to adopt cognitive enhancement may not be able to participate meaningfully in society.

This claim has already arisen with regard to smart drugs, that school and work environments have become so competitive, that it is not possible to compete effectively on an unenhanced basis. Professional baseball has been a prominent example of the enhancement issue, where enhancement is illegal, yet widespread. Like many other technology rollouts, and particularly given the sensitivities regarding neurotechnology, it could be that incremental tiers of pathology cures become well-grounded before being extended slowly for enhancement purposes. Legally, in certain nation-states, that is.

Philosophically, it could be queried whether mental health is any different than physical health. Humans and societies may not be able to think objectively about mental enhancement given taboos.